Monday, January 4, 2016

An Eight Fold Path - in Progress

Since there have been a lot of comments made about the curious nature of this morning’s US Dollar Index moves, I thought I would post another Eight Fold Path chart – this time not on a stock index, but on the US Dollar Index, the count of which is currently “in progress”. Again, this is the only truly ‘objective’ way I know to count the Elliott Wave impulse in real time, and to help eliminate all of the guess-work about labels.

The ‘implication’ or prediction from this chart is that since wave 2 (minor 2) is a FLAT wave, then wave 4, will be something other. Wave 4 already has a clear (a), (b), (c), down in a zigzag, so it is ‘possible’ that wave 4 ended there. And while such a count is ‘possible’ and would provide the needed alternation, it does not attack the lower channel, yet, and it makes wave 4 quite short in time – which is opposite to the typical personality of fourth waves.

So, it is also possible, and more likely, that minor wave 4 becomes a triangle to ‘provide more time’ for the wave to attack the lower channel boundary. Further, because wave 2 is a FLAT, there ‘should not’ be a new B wave high within wave 4. Any higher high would be minor 5.

So, while the ‘potential’ impulse is playing out, there is a caveat : wave 2 is again a FLAT – which is not typical of second waves : possible but not typical. So, if the EWO breaks below -40%, or the potential fourth wave breaks the channel and does not quickly rebound, then the Elliottician must simply accept the result that 1,2,3 was actually the alternate A,B,C. The 1,2,3 and A,B,C are equivalent until they are not.

Followers of my blog and in some live chat rooms will recognize that nothing in this count has been changed since it's inception, and "special note" was made when wave 3 was 1.618 x 1 - live and in real time.

Cheers and enjoy the chart.


  1. Another great analyses and instruction on how to count the waves. Thanks again Joe.

  2. Neat stuff. The way you stress the interplay between waves 2 and 4 in terms of structure and time is a gem. Thanks a lot, Joe!

  3. Count invalidated by overlaps

  4. Hi Joe

    Was the advance from wave 4 to 99.70 the truncated minor 5?
    Thereafter is the decline since ended the bull phase for DXY?

    Thank You