The ES daily chart has a bit of a problem - a hitch - in it which is pretty glaring. That is, on a non-rollover day the chart has the large gap up in it that is shown, below, around the 6,552 level. The gap was a 'news gap' and, again, not one just from the futures roll-over.
ES prices today initially headed higher, stopped underneath the prior high in the six-bar congestion area, made a lower low than the open (not a new daily low) and then rebounded to find comfort at the 18-day moving-average-of-closes. It is very whippy, as is wont in the middle of the Bollinger Bands, and the algos have the control.
Is it likely the gap will fill? Yes, unless the news cycle keeps being manipulated with the sheer nonsense of the tariffs, the shutdown, etc.
As best we can tell, the up wave currently counts as w-x-y, where the y wave is shorter than the w wave. So, it might be a (b) wave, up, in itself. But we can't confirm yet that the up wave is truly over. Still, one would expect some resistance from the 18-day SMA, and that seems to be happening, so far.
So, we have to take it day-by-day counting as best we can. It is possible that some news item or other (earnings, etc.) might spark a (c) wave or more downward, but, right now the count is still sloppy until lower lows are made. There are still ways new highs could be made, like if the w-x-y turns into w-x-y-x-z and forms a diagonal. But that is speculation, as well. All we know is that at the present the local upward count is not an impulse one.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
A sell off in the morning to under recent support (spx cash 6540) would give a bullish divergence on mid time frames. There would be a good chance of a major push up over the all time highs to take out stops and then reverse next week.
ReplyDeleteThank you as always for the charts and commentary.
Possible. Thx for the thought. TJ.
DeleteThe Dow has been struggling to hold its gains since October 3rd. The 100-year-plus Dow chart you posted recently is fascinating. If the top is indeed in at 47,000, an 89% decline over the next few years would take us to the bottom of the long-term lower channel—around 5,200. Interestingly, back in 1929, the Dow also hit the top of the channel, followed by an 89% drop to the lower boundary about 2.5 years later.
DeleteOminous comment, Tim! 😱
DeleteI will also note that the Dow Jones Industrial Average completed an apparent 5th wave (on 14 October) in the decline from 3 October. This qualifies that decline as a bearish impulse.
The S&P 500 Index did not make an equivalent (canonical) 5th wave, but the S&P 500 bottom on 14 October has been discussed as a potential (truncated) 5th wave in comments on this site.
Why did the Dow make a lower low on 14 October, but the S&P did not? Just glancing at the stocks in these indexes, I notice that Alphabet, Meta and Tesla are not part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average - that's about 31% of the market capitalization of the "Magnificent 7". 💭
ES (SPY/CFD) 30-min: as far as I can tell, there is now downward overlap on the prior up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/o1B7gvu1/
TJ
..now from lower band to upper band and a higher local high. Whippy. TJ.
Delete..now back to intraday 18-per SMA in another whippy move. TJ.
DeleteSPY Cash 5-min .. has an interesting look to it; nothing more.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xXTWgSji/
TJ
Wedge broke down; SPY opening gap closed. TJ.
DeleteLd?
DeleteExpanded flat might be in progress, so far measurements looks acceptable.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EtEzoWbc/
Invalidated.
Delete2 hr SPY extended hours.- Prices are right on the lower trend line. If we are to get a bounce it should be now. A trend break that holds would be very ominous.
ReplyDeleteTrend line broken. Is it a sucker play?
DeleteES 30-min: there has been a break of the over-night-low down (red) fractal, shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hyJ11P87/
TJ
Now there is a break of yesterday's retracement low down (red) fractal, shown. Up count suggested as an expanded diagonal 'c failure'. Acceptable in a 'c' wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FUDVfZq5/
TJ
Every wave is counting as 3s again. The overall pattern is starting to look more like a triangle than any kind of impulse. Very frustrating! 😠
DeleteHG .. try not to get too discouraged. When you find yourself in a funk, my recommendation is 'measure, measure, measure instead of trade". Do you recognize the measurement at the bottom?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vEEDUo1c/
We are either making an expanded flat with the 138.2% or we are making a contracting diagonal following the EMA-34 on the 5-minute timeframe.
Either way, the market will choose, not me. And there are too few points too late in the day to be concerned about. This is when I watch to see 'what' the market decides, and 'how' it decides it. Cheers.
TJ
Thanks for your kind words, TJ. 😊
DeleteWave counting stop for potential diagonal exceeded higher. No harm done. TJ.
DeleteThis is just what it looks like to me, at the end of the day.
ReplyDeleteEvery wave counts best as a 3. Each subwave counts best as a 3:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/o7O7agiH/
That's a nice chart, Henry.
DeleteWhy thanks, Roy. 😁
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ