Today is Friday. Higher highs are possible, although the morning is starting out 'wobbly' - possibly like a triangle or diagonal, there is insufficient evidence for a turn yet. The lower three-touch trend line we cited earlier has held. It has become an hourly channel.
Since 123.6 has been hit and slightly exceeded, then 138.2 may be possible, but not required. Maybe the Minor B wave will be an expanded flat (at least initially) that would add length to the downside. If not, it might become a running triangle with the first :3 waves down as the more violent start of the triangle. Time will tell. The hourly MACD has turned lower again, but could be rehabilitated again, too. Dicey times.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
TJ, a simple question for you:
ReplyDeleteDo you see anything in the present-time EW pattern for the S&P500 Index, which would indicate that this advance (since 1 August) is _definitely_ a B wave (as you suggest above), as opposed to a potential wave 5 (in an impulse counted from the 7 April low)?
Or is it simply, in your "Principle of Equivalence", either a B wave << OR >> wave 5, until proven, one way or the other?
I ask, (as many have pointed out) that it is possible to count this advance (from 1 August) as a presently subdividing impulse. I'm happy to provide a labeled chart to illustrate, if needed. 😸
All markets waves have impulsive segments. Even the corrective waves have their A's & C's. The dividing line is the waves that clearly add their fourth and fifth waves. And see below .. TJ.
DeleteSPY 1-hr: just saying that something like this 'might' work into next week.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jBDdcJGc/
TJ
Good question. And perhaps (simply to rephrase?) we ask (again) if we are working a large ED where we don't count to 5, but just in abc's. Or are we building toward a blowoff with a succession of "endless" subdivided fives until "we can't take it any longer" ?
ReplyDeleteOne shouldn't be 'taking' anything. According to the Ira Epstein guidelines provided, the market's bias is 'positive' when price is over the 18-day SMA. It's that simple. The wave-counting exercise is a different matter. The summary is here:
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
TJ