The side-by-side ES daily closing-only charts, below, show the two best ways to label the up move since October. The Principle of Equivalence says that we can consider both counts the same until they are not.
On the left is the minute a,b,c count from an X wave, and on the right is the minute i-to-v count from a B wave. In the minute i-to-v count, the first wave ((i)), circle-i, is the extended wave in the sequence.
To me, it may be that the only thing that separates them is whether in the second count, the second wave, ((ii)), circle-ii, might just measure to be too small to actually even be a second wave.
Yesterday, we said our ES 8-hr wave could be topping in a fifth wave (v). After an apparent exhaustion gap upward, prices did reverse a bit and closed just about unchanged to lower - depending on the market. This occurred as prices struck the upper daily Bollinger Band in only an over-bought condition, and not in an embedded condition. So, we'll try to take some additional clues from Monday.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
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ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_270c29cafac94685690fb7ca8c1a3633.png
DeleteSorry, but if I understand correctly, you're third wave in the 30-minute expanding diagonal 'breaks the rules' because it 'must' be longer than the first wave. This is a published rule, and can not be violated. If you measure it, it is shorter. Further, one simply can not count A-B, A-B, A-B, A in a third wave. Again, it breaks every rule in the book. TJ.
DeleteProject , Monitor , Adjust
DeleteSuggest you read the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter to find the 'rules' for patterns, or such nonsense charts in the future will simply be deleted. TJ.
DeleteHow would you label the waves from 4715 - please post a chart
DeleteI already did that on Thursday at the link below, using MotiveWave software to confirm all wave lengths and rule out wave counting errors.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/02/best-explanation.html
TJ
That sounds like an OEW follower.
DeleteThe only place where a expanding triangle might appear is in the Dow 30 min cash chart. In my opinion any rally Monday is a gift from the short gods. The NDX cash 90 minute also looks to be a ending triangle. A possible 7 point reversal top. Of course when you think a top is in they surprise you.
ReplyDeleteLol!;I have lost count of how many times I have counted five "impulsive looking" waves off a high. Don't feel too badly. Me Market has a way of confounding even the most able wave counters, including the man who "wrote the book"! 😊
Deletewhats a ending triangle. never heard of that
ReplyDeleteES trying to hold mid line on 4 hr channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/D98twwi
Deletehome sales at 10am, can't imagine that will be good
ReplyDeleteIt's New Home Sales, not existing. Expectation is for a marginal gain over December. NHS are still benefitting from rate buydowns, and builders are becoming slightly more promotional, adding in more extras free of charge.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ