Unlike much of the U.S. - which is experiencing a warmer than normal winter - the Elliott Wave Oscillator (or Awesome Oscillator) went below zero on the four-hour chart of the ES futures with about 109 candles on the chart. Further price movement lower is possible either in the overnight, or in the cash session tomorrow.
There is (or is near) contact with the lower channel line, and the expanded flat would alternate well with the second wave. The analyst needs to, of course, be on the alert for any downward overlap, but so far, a fifth wave, up - should it occur - might fit the bill to end the wave within current limits of 4,995. We need to see how other countries/areas (Europe, Asia) react to the Fed's news today.
On a daily basis, the slow stochastic remains embedded at this time so there might still be some Smart Money interest in an up wave. Time will tell.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I like how this would channel better but do not like the lack of alternation.
ReplyDelete'b' did not go over the high in the second wave. It did in the fourth. Further, the fourth wave would be 'longer-in-time' than the second. And we don't know it is over yet. As far as I can tell, there is alternation. TJ.
DeleteTo clarify, you use going over the high for alternation purposes and not the 90% qualification for a flat? Thank you!
DeleteYes. But it's not that simple. For example, in another example the wave two could be a flat, but the wave four could be a 'running triangle'. They would still alternate even though they both have higher 'b' waves. Their form and length of time would be different. TJ.
DeleteThx!
DeleteA couple of late notes: 1) the ES lost its embedded status on the re-open. The only day it can get it back is by Thursday's close, 2) the Dow futures - YM - do have downward overlap. They 'may' be making a diagonal, and 3) the alternate is that the C wave up move ended at yesterday's SPY cash high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere is that Dow (YM Futures) overlap reference.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yOWvf418/
TJ
As of this evening, the Dow cash did not overlap. TJ.
DeleteMonitoring a 4hr gold triangle possibility since 12/12
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: so far cash is respecting the gap as we move into the noon hour (ET). Let's see what it does with the very short-term fractals, the lower of which is a wave-counting-stop for the present.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LX1wM7Zx/
TJ
SPY now over the base channel and reaching for the first of two 1.618 targets.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8N9ukJmq/
TJ
SPY 5-min: as far as I can tell, we are into five-waves-up, and should get a 50 - 62% retrace - perhaps overnight.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DQBuMBXe/
TJ
Reminder: Big earnings after the close like Meta, APPL, AMZN, US Steel, etc. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPX/SPY/NQ will pump now after these earnings. This market does not seem like it's topping anytime soon. I remember seeing topping counts 3-4 years ago, and now the timeline keeps getting extended.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: new all-time high validates a likely fifth wave higher. TJ.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.