Within the likely larger diagonal shown yesterday on the daily line chart, the shorter term pattern of the expanding diagonal (probably a Ⓒ wave) continues to play out. The ES 4-hr chart is below with the count shown previously.
Price did make marginal higher highs today as we anticipated might happen, and then the market gave a big meh and just sold off a bit. Note that the higher high occurred in proximity to that 1.618 extension shown with the Fibonacci ruler in red. We can't rule out a lower degree fourth wave here, so yet another trip over the high is not ruled out, but it is also not necessary to the count. It's simply that today's downward wave did not create much length, at least not yet.
Once again, if the pattern is correct, it predicts the Ⓑ wave low at 4,062 would be undercut in less time than the pattern took to form.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
NASI is a concern, it's not confirming highs. XLE should bounce but I still expect gap to close 73.02 eventually.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. Price bounced off the S1 pivot in an over-sold condition and broke the up (green) fractal in what looks like 'five-waves-up', so far. A new down (red) fractal has formed at the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5ts6PTKo/
As stated earlier, a move over the high is not unexpected. Neither are lower prices.
TJ
SPY 5-min: short-term, here's the five-waves-up, and a 62% pull-back, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/40pEDJBv/
Caution and flexibility needed here, and this is 'no man's land' in that market has to prove new highs or new lows.
TJ
Choppy like a triangle
ReplyDeleteWhen will VIX matter? Next target lower 13.38 is Covid scare in Feb 2020
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YNiuLa52/
now with the iwm rally the bulls will be telling everyone that it really is a bull market and buy all dips. Then the vix matters.
DeleteHigh to low to high? from what I see equality falls in the Week of July 24. Will the market care?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LLxz7TYc/
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ