We are able (again) to count five waves to a high today. The cash gap we noted on the daily chart was filled. Then immediately the ES/SPX/SPY fell off in a decently rapid wave lower. Note the Elliott Wave Oscillator made a lower low. After the sell-off to ES 4,290 there was a 62% retrace.
In order to even begin to get confirmation - with such a deep 62% retrace - then there should be a 1.618 extension wave lower that should break the bottom of the base channel. Without it, any impulse down would be suspect. In the overnight, the prior high would need to be respected and not be exceeded. I would watch tonight's overnight carefully.
Be cautious and make sure that - without lower price lows - the above pattern is not otherwise part of a triangle. We don't think so because price is running out of room to the upside. But it is possible.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Aside - EurUsd (mthly) 0.83+ long term ?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/zs7hdk4vk9er0nn/EurUsd3PDH.PNG/file
TJ,
ReplyDeleteJust looking at a possible evening count in the futures with an a-b(triangle)-c
following your count to start the activation above:
https://imgur.com/a/7Jo3Ems
If it is garbage let me know that too :)
TJChuck
SPY cash 5-min: here is a follow-up chart. Price is below equality and below the tentative base channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ChE1bHmN/
Let's see how it develops.
TJ
Forget the fed pivot, the bond market is pricing in a .75 hike in September.
ReplyDeleteES (5m) Reg div (hidden) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5j6stlezw5b7syt/es5rdh.PNG/file
fwiw AAPL filled it's gap at 174.43
ReplyDeleteThanks. I've been monitoring that too. That chart looks very much like an expanding diagonal tracing out it's fourth wave. It would need to be proven still but the fifth wave down. See Weekly Chart below
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ne8tojsttv7c0us/Aapl.jpg/file
thanks so much. From the ratio charts I watch, AAPL should sell off more than both SPY and QQQ in the coming weeks so this makes sense.
Deletepossible ABC whiplash move after minutes? If they don't run up for the C into 2pm that is....
ReplyDeleteThanks Tj,
ReplyDeleteDo you have any thoughts with respect to bitcoin(or any crypto) the way you analyzed AAPL ? It is hard to draw a chart based on EW on crypto's. Fundamentally do you think they will survive in the long run or they are just a sham?
The only time I ever looked at bitcoin was in this post. And look what happened at wave ((5)), Primary-5.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/02/bitcoin-special.html
If it's like any other Elliott Wave, it 'should have' retraced 'at least' 68%. By rough calculation it has retraced 71 - 74%. I have no interest in further charting of it, or predicting of it, because I don't pretend to understand it - other than paying for the price of electricity to run the computers that work the algorithm, and the price of all the computer hardware, etc. So, you won't see anything more from me on it.
TJ