On Friday, the ES futures made a new all-time high. The Dow - so far - has not. This has been the raggedy situation almost all-along as the tech stocks have led the rally, and the Dow has lagged & caught up, lagged & caught up. Several weeks back we noted how the Dow needed a new all-time-high to claim a diagonal might be in progress in that index. It got it. Here is the two-day chart below.
The question now seems to be is the Dow waiting on the final waves to complete a diagonal? We don't know for sure. In favor of the count, there are unquestionably the required overlapping waves typical of a diagonal. Also, the time signatures are reasonably favorable.
Arguing a bit against the diagonal are the relatively shallow retrace of wave of wave minute ((ii)), circle-ii.
So in longer-term diagonals wave minute ((v)), circle-v, can fail. It has not yet. But it can. So just keep that in mind.
Meanwhile, in the ES 15-min chart below, after the downward diagonal for wave iv, which was called in timely fashion, the Elliott Wave Oscillator indicates this current up wave may have a bit left to finish the impulse up.
In this chart, there has been a 1.618 wave upward. The current wave micro-((3)) is on the first divergence of the Elliott Wave Oscillator. And a fourth wave can be in progress. Remember, wave ((4)) could be a triangle, or it could go over the top. So be very patient, yet. Even though this count is getting full, it is not there quite yet. And, keep in mind price is currently over the 18-day SMA so the daily price bias is up. Further, in the chart above, price is over the moving average shown, so the intraday bias is currently up, as well.
In terms of the calendar, Tuesday will be the last day of the month with its propensity for sloppiness due to 'window dressing' and Wednesday is the first day of the month, which often sees the inflows we have written about so often.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Is the Dow chart showing an ABC of larger Y, with Nov low larger X?
ReplyDelete..(Y) and (X); please start to get the degree symbols involved.
DeleteTJ
Is the Dow chart showing and ABC of (Y), with Nov low being (X)?
DeleteAppreciate your analysis. Seems we might extend to 4550 fib area? Spx is the only index with a confirming A/D line.
ReplyDelete..if things don't 'fail'.
DeleteTJ
Thanks TJ, I was waiting to see if you would post the Dow chart.
ReplyDelete[IF] the C leg on the Dow chart above is C of (Y), and Oct of '20 low was (X), and Sept of '20 peak was (W), it seems we have C of (Y) being 30 days (and counting) longer than all of (W). Is this not the same issue as on S&P?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
This is why the comment regarding diagonals versus triangles is made on the chart. I don't 'know' that diagonals can correct for seeming time degree violations, like triangles can correct for seeming price degree violations. But, I have to ask the question, "why do they say that diagonals indicate a market that has gone 'too-far-too-fast',"?
DeleteThere have been too few diagonals at this degree to study effectively.
TJ
Gotcha. We can add this potential diagonal to those to study. With that said, let's see if we can actually find an ending to this so called "unstoppable" move up! :o)
DeleteAs an addendum, the "too-far-too fast" description would seem to suggest a possible degree violation in price "too far", not one in time "too fast"? Just a thought.
DeleteIt seems logical to assume that a time degree discrepancy would be allowable for an ending diagonal wave, similar to an extended 5th wave.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/QfFuAuAf
ReplyDeleteSPX has not touched the 200 dma this year and currently around 11% above it. Not touching that average only happens 14% of the time. We haven’t even had a 5% pullback this year. If one of these happen, I would think it happens before November. Maybe the front running of fed tapering or actual tapering is the catalyst. My cash position is high at the moment as big drawdowns are unacceptable. Patiently waiting, ATB.
Crazy market. Sven has pointed out the uncanny consistency of market bottoms on the 19th of the last several months. He opines the ramp likely continues so long as the liquidity spigot remains open, and clear balance sheet expansion and new ES highs have been perfectly correlated to date. The FED has no intention of tapering or voluntarily raising rates, raging inflationary pressures notwithstanding. Ultimately, as is always the case, the market will impose higher rates and the FED will have no choice but to follow suit. Higher rates will bring FED control of the market to an end, but for now, they imo remain firmly in control.
DeleteObservation- the "B wave" between 2002 and 2007 took about 260 weeks and gained 105%.
ReplyDeleteOur current "B wave" has taken 73 weeks and gained 106% (degrees notwithstanding).
ES 2-Hr: just fyi - this chart may be seen to have ((5)) = ((1)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Z6miqhrq/
TJ
Not asking a question as per your wishes but a comment.
DeleteIf you move circle 5 to the middle of chart at 4500 apprx. Then that becomes one and 4460 bottom becomes two and now in third IMHO.
@fibo; while it 'can' be seen that way. It can also be seen as red (A), (B), (C) of red ((1)) of a diagonal fifth wave for v of (v).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/n2P2MaFh/
The problem with the ((1)), ((2)), ((3)) interpretation is the Elliott Wave Oscillator and volume indicate a poor wave with not a lot of momentum. 'Look' at where the EWO is with 100 candles, and try not to ignore such.
TJ
4hr - potential resistance(s) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9xz9b7hd9des6st/4hr30.PNG/file
Gold (4hr/2day) - posited diagonal status -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ki0fcto46lpsrk8/Gold42d.PNG/file
..think ((a)) of 5 is down at 3. Those are non-overlapping waves down, and your RSI would be on a minimum there.
DeleteTJ
I dont follow. I have 3 where your chart has it (unless you've revised and I missed it). I would welcome an update.
DeleteThanks.
No, move minute ((a)) of 5, down - to the SAME LEVEL as 3 - but to the right; where you currently have the GANN 1/2 symbol.
DeleteTJ
Wouldnt that then be a ((w)) (unless the 3 waves are part of a flat)? No indication of 90% retrace for flat at ((b)) yet. What am I missing?
DeleteThanks
Is it me? Or are everyone else's biorhythms off a tad in the last couple of weeks? Lol!
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/21vgtKnA/
TJ
You've changed your count from prior chart. Think that's where the diff is. Note that you had 5 down where you now have (iii). It might be biorhythms, lol.
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/08/follow-up-on-gold.html
yup .. updates happen. I didn't have the $100 down wave to work with at the time. Now, we do.
Deletenope .. I'm not publishing the link to that site. I have no idea of their credibility, and they want to collect people's emails and/or phone numbers. Sorry, you can spread that word by other means if you wish.
DeleteI wouldnt think one would have to have futures prices to determine whether current prices are 3 or 5 waves? Calling them in realtime then begs the question it would seem.
DeleteGW .. there are many, many times when a 1.618 wave adds a fourth and a fifth to become an impulse. There are many times (as we have seen) when it doesn't. That is part of The Principle of Equivalence that I have explained in The Eight Fold Path Method. Some understand it. Some don't. There is a deeper explanation but too long to go into here.
DeleteAnd one simply doesn't get every call correct in real time. And one is simply not awake at every hour of every day to call every wave in real time. Thank goodness for sleep sometimes. So, one picks up where one left off. I suggested the 'possibility' of the expanding diagonal in GOLD when none other did. And diagonals 'in particular' have tricky waves to count. They grind & grind & grind & let loose all at once!
TJ
Can Ronaldo kick ManU into stage 2 (Weinstein)?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9s23jbjkqikuymp/ManU.PNG/file
UUP (wkly) - Momentum leading?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/i6p3h8v374ft7g8/UUPw.PNG/file
Why are people like Blackrock now starting to whine about FED easy momey policy? They have amassed hundteds of billions during the FED asset inflation mania, now they are demanding tapering? Make no mistake. The actual statt of even the most timid of tightening policy spells doom for the U.S economy.I am not even talking about the stock market and we have seen the reaction of how even mere talk of tapering evokes. I seriously doubt the economy could survive as little as a 25 basis point rise in the ten year note. Maybe Blackrock is now ready to proceed on the next phase of their own acquisition mania by scooping up bankrupt U.S busineses for pennies on the dollar.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Just fyi ...
ReplyDelete10:01a (MW)
Breaking U.S. consumer confidence falls to 113.8 in August from 125.1
TJ
Possible to have micro-((5)) inside of ((5)) = 0.618xnet[((1))-to-((3))].
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wpEELTvG/
TJ
..as far as I can tell, there has been one level downward overlap in the futures on 4,513.
DeleteTJ
Hi TJ on charting, do you think we should "try our best" to keep to 120-160 candles? For this chart, we can get within the preferred range of candles if we use an odd duration of 90 minutes/candle. Ideally, EWO is only a mathematical tool hence it should work with all duration? Happy to hear your thoughts.
DeleteWeekly duration is approaching equality.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/vRxkyOZ9-SPX-Duration/