From what looked & measured in the ES futures like a clear three-waves-up on Friday, overnight the Smart Money spun the futures up in an effort to get prices back to the upper daily Bollinger Band. In doing so, they hit & exceeded the band intraday, a minor new all-time high was created, the up wave was extended to a 1.618 Fibonacci relationship per the ruler on the left, below, and a new local up channel was formed in the chart, as shown.
 |
| ES Futures - 30-min - Tentative New Up Channel |
Look at how small those overnight bars are! They ground & ground & ground & ground on price until the open, and with the gap up, prices headed higher at the open. (As an aside, it seems to me that this 'grinding action' might be analogous to - but not exactly the same as - mining cryptocurrency.) Anyway, this is why there is the Principle of Equivalence. Three waves up is a/i, b/ii, and c/iii until it is not. Last night and today shows exactly how and why this principle is included in The Eight Fold Path Method. There are other reasons, too - just too long to discuss here. Anyway, for now we should simply see if a valid wave iv forms in the channel above. Overlap on wave i would invalidate further up movement and indicate a top at the current high.
So, the daily chart is still working on this diagonal, with about 120 candles on the chart. And no rules have yet been broken.
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Diagonal Count |
Today's higher high occurred on continued daily divergences with the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and somewhat lower volume. Per the comments in the prior post, the diagonal that was called from October 2014 until May 2015 took fully 149 daily candles to form. And you think 'you' are tired of this, lol!!?? So this one is in the range. Patience is warranted. And keep in mind, the real serious drop after May, 2015 did not occur until August, even though there were mildly lower waves before then.
The upper limit for move is shown by the Fibonacci ruler in yellow at 4,579.25 - we are not there yet.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
An aside - IXIC (wkly) - intersections of interest
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5w7574tgze6v2iy/intersections.PNG/file
Hi joe, excuseme me, the wave up gold your grafic , wave B,arrive at 1855? Tank you so much
ReplyDeleteGold 4-Hr is now into prior resistance area, shown below. There is no down count until wave (e) of triangle is broken lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CwPLNYg1/
TJ
Always thanks
DeleteCourtesy of SentimenTrader -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/a-new-high-but-with-negative-breadth/
TJ -
ReplyDeleteThe potential exp diagonal in gold (w5) has not yet reached the minimum measure. Am I thinking correctly that the B wave within an ABC leg of a diagonal can be a flat?
Thanks.
yes! Only B waves in diagonals can be flats.
DeleteTJ
SPY 15-min: let's see if there is to be a ((C)) wave downward to contact the channel and send the EWO near or below the zero line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qT92wfkI/
TJ
Updated with a couple of alternates (Fourth Wave Conundrum). Volume is very, very low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9IDN2vNz/
TJ
vth is trying to extend I suppose.
DeleteHere is one valid way to see a triangle in the ES overnight futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ec08Hb37/
If the low of the triangle doesn't hold, then look for the larger ((C)) wave down.
TJ
..and IFF the triangle should not hold, it is likely because everything to the right of (B) might be part of a larger diagonal downward. The three-wave sequences can be common to both.
DeleteTJ
ES ..larger triangle now also validated by crossing back over wave iii; so too is a flat.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jM25eAMk/
TJ