Please refer to yesterday's post for the potential minute ((b)) wave count upward on the longer term daily chart. Today is another day where an upward terminus is 'possible' but not certain. Here is the ES 2-hr chart which helps clarify the upward count.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Overlap |
First, please note the orange dotted line in the price chart indicating the overlapping waves. Second, please note that today we counted both five-waves-down from the high, and then another five-waves-up from the low. That rarely happens except in a Flat wave. IF we did have a Flat wave, then that makes this contracting triple zigzag difficult to be a diagonal. It would break the 'rules' which require zigzags only for waves two and four of a diagonal.
Next note that all the higher highs have occurred on decreasing Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) values.
Lastly, we note that yesterday we had said the daily slow stochastic had embedded. Ira Epstein said it hadn't. Three different data sources - other than his - confirmed an embedded reading. Today is no different.
Today, price closed above the band, and typically has an expectation of closing outside of the upper band about 5% of the time. For each consecutive close the rule-of-thumb is to subtract 1%. So, IF tomorrow closed outside of the band as well, the probability would drop to 4%. However, daily price bias is still up with price over the 18-day SMA, and today is a good example of how the algo's can just whip around prices and the typical traders' "pet theories" are destroyed in the blink of an eye. These are theories like, "there is round-number resistance at 3,000. It will be defended." And on & on ..
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
No dis-repect T.J but price action around these round numbers is hardly a "pet theory". It is based on long observation of how the battle around them resolves. As I have repeatedly stated, price closing above them is generally indicative of higher movement. That is what is meant by the level being "defended".
ReplyDeletealso no disrespect tachy, but when price traded from 2,965 to 3,339 it is hard to see how 3,000 had any involvement at all.
DeleteI agree with Tachyon there is certainly a bullish bias here as we have crossed the 200 day avg as well by crossing 3000
Delete@mobes.. above the 18-day says there is bias to the upside.
DeleteFinding the top...
ReplyDelete1. Let us consider the sideways move from 29-APR high to 14-MAY low as a Flat wave-A down.
2. From the 14-MAY low, let us consider the cuurent rise as an Irregular wave-B.
Given the Irregular wave-B is permissible to be up to 1.618 times the length of wave-A, we now know the maximum upside of this rally: 3071.18 (cash) and 3100.3 (futures).
Can provide a chart for clarity with other potential top targets, if the TJ allows it.
I looked on IRA's website earlier today to check on exactly what is deemed to be "embedded" regarding stochastics. If I read it correctly, it is that both %K and %D
ReplyDeleteare above 80 for 3 consecutive days. Via TradingView, I show today to be the 4th day. This is using the 14,3,3 slow stochastic. It may be that others use a different criteria. I guess this would fall under the FWIW category. :o)
Sp futures up at 3044 we're about to break the next resistance level
ReplyDeleteThere is no b/B 1,38 extension has been exceeded.
ReplyDeleteOne of the possible counts I was watching was a-b-c with target 3050 - https://invst.ly/qybac
Five zig-zags with overlapping - ED. Exactly the same for cash - 1,38 exceeded and zig-zags with overlapping for ED.
Irregular B-wave which is 1.38% extension of A-wave:
Deletehttps://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/2020/05/27/2020-may-27/
And flying unicorns....
Delete123, consider the whole move as a zigzag. Change A to (B) and now we are in (C).
DeleteIf (C) was underway from the 14-MAY low, it would have to unfold impulsively, since (A) was impulsive. So far, it appears the rise from the 14-MAY low is corrective.
DeleteAt least according the book I read (Neely) if b is larger than 138% from a , wave c should not make lower low.
DeleteGood luck with your irregular b wave and non-existing expanded flat pattern.
Haven't read Neely so can not comment. However, 'regular' Elliott Wave states that in an Expanded Flat, the Irregular B-wave can't exceed more than 1.618 times of A-wave. The target of C-wave down is usually 1.618 —which would bring the SPX back down to the low of A-wave. Appreciate the comment.
DeleteWake up the expanded flat is busted.
Deletec/y already running for a-b-c/w-x-y
@123abc .. STOP coming to my blog and trying to teach people about Elliott wave, when you know nothing at all about it yourself. Re:
Delete"If (C) was underway from the 14-MAY low, it would have to unfold impulsively, since (A) was impulsive."
That statement is categorically incorrect. There is NOTHING in Elliott Wave that says if (A) is impulse, (C) can not be a diagonal. Nothing.
I'll repeat it again. You have your own blog post. Use it for your own readers. Leave mine alone. All futures comments here will be deleted.
TJ
Looks like yesterday may have been a trap. Emphasis on "may"
ReplyDeleteThey are not done trying to smash bearish traders. Sideways consolidation in ES pointing to at least one more ramp higher to rip off a few more faces. The reversal is gonna be epic...!
DeleteLove it Tachy. It will surely be one for the ages.
Deletestill think today is the day, but hey - have I been wrong before? oh yes!
DeleteWhile price is moving sideways, here are some numerically calculated values.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qyl2m
P - Daily Pivot (Classic Calculation)
R1 - Resistance L1 Pivot (Classic Calculation)
BB - Upper Daily Bollinger Band
And, so far, the downward retrace has been only 25%.
TJ
Cool! I have an upside target of 3070 (under 2% above 200 dma)
DeleteBob Johnson mentioned above re A-B-C up from March low completing --> C = .382 * A @ 3057 SPX.
ReplyDeleteALT - IF there is only a small pullback after, i.e. fib retrace of rally from 2766 SPX, then a higher high, then that would be 3 of 3 up and March was P4 low, P4 would be 2 year triangles in SPX, DJI, NYA, and flat shape in COMP.
There are 2 eclipses coming in June.
BKX should give a good clue. For the bull count, May 14 low would have to have been the re-test of the climax low, but that clearly looks like a zig zag B wave into that low.
Do you mean expanding triangles starting in Jan 2018?
DeleteExactly. Been watching it the whole way.
DeleteDoesn't E have to be bigger than D? It came up short by 100 points.
Delete? E would be 3393 to 2192 - the biggest wave.
DeleteMy mistake. I had a typo.
DeleteDo you know of any other expanding triangles? I've never looked for one before.
DeleteIf I may ask, what is your longer term count? I have SC5 starting in 2009 and expect an ED. Cycle I can be counted as a double zigzag. Expecting 1500-1700 for cycle II.
DeleteTop of my head - about 9 months DJI in 1986, was not as expanding.
DeleteMy primary count would be similar to yours, just less defined - but that there was an A/W down to 2192, B/X up probably finishing about now, then C/Y down. That 'may' only complete a larger A/W - one step at a time.
DeleteAlt is the big triangle P4 and now in P5, and this would be dependent upon more than expected strength from here.
Thanks. The only issue for me is that 2019-2020 does not count well as an impulse which would be required for the DZZ. But it does count well as a ZZ which fits the expanding triangle idea. Either way, everything is a zigzag!
DeleteShort term, the upward wave has qualified for a 'flat'. b-3 waves, as we know, can be particularly tricky. IF price breaks down through the mid-line of the channel, a c-5 wave down to extend the correction a bit in price might occur.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qym8p
TJ
Green volume today compared to yesterday...so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1FJFHOLk/
TJ
broken the 3052 resistance 3071 coming up
ReplyDeleteES now tagging the R1 daily pivot. An ES 30-min reversal candle (downward) has not occurred as of yet.
ReplyDeleteSaving that for ES most likely..
DeleteHow do you see the update to the earlier chart?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qym8p
When time permits. Thanks
..currently b-3 moves to the 1.382 R1 high.
DeleteLooking back, the e-mini daily futures was embedded on the slow stoch. 10 straight days before it rolled over in February.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min doji at the R-1 daily pivot, requires significant lower closing candle to confirm.
ReplyDelete..chart update below ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qyopg
TJ
Hownabout ed fromn 2900 amd we just completed or completing 2nd leg up of and then one more left.
ReplyDeleteIf we don't slice through 3000.00 like a hot knife through "budda", we're not yet done imho...
ReplyDelete..there is nothing significant about 3,000; the daily pivot is at 3,013.
Delete3013 is good...I suspect if it goes, so will 3000.
DeleteIf it does and 3000.00 does not...well, we shall see...
Here is the ES 30-min version, showing the doji at R1, and now a fairly significant lower close candle. The suggestion is to put a 'wave counting stop at the high'.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qyoyx
TJ
ES 30 min, now overlapping the prior 3.054 high.
DeleteThe shape of the SPY rising wedge looks like it will print a 20 handle decline once the wedge breaks...
ReplyDeleteEarly March gaps all around being sealed...
ReplyDeleteES 30-min, another outside reversing candle, lower. Also, red volume picking up.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qyplt
TJ
Yep!
DeleteES 30-min, now below the a-3 wave of the flat.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteAs the smaller waves down started to unfold I was thinking exlanding diagonal lower. The overlalping waves were there for the first 4 wavez along with lower highs. All that was needed was a big 5th wave down. That "appeared" accomplished as well. However when scrutinising the 5th wave it is very hard on any timescale, except perhaps the 10 min. chart, to find a 5-3-5 combination for waves a, b & c of wave 5. An expanding diagonal from that position would by have meant 5 waves down from the post 3/23 high.
ReplyDelete