Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Volatility Continues - 2

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes were higher
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Inside Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Not much new to report today. Stocks as measured by the S&P500 closed yesterday at 2,656. The overnight futures were lower, so stocks gapped down lower trading down -19 points to 2,637, and then, beginning around 09:40 ET, stopped the decline, and turned around higher to closed the gap in more whippy trade. By the close stocks did not make a new daily high, but reached 2,669 before turning slightly lower to close at 2,663; up about +6.94 points on the day.

None of yesterday's scenarios is ruled out by today's inside day. IF tomorrow opens lower again, it might be a good candidate to suggest a B wave down or a 2nd wave down is in progress. It should be noted that volume is falling off today - might be the slow volume that occurs in a triangle.

Have a good evening,


  1. Hi Joe,

    Playing devils advocate here: you say that this can't be minor 4 as it is larger in degree than P4, however it is only larger in absolute terms (points), rather than relative terms (% drop). So one could in fact argue that a degree violation has not occurred.

    Has anyone defined and proven it to be one way or another?

    1. And by 'it' I'm obviously talking about the definition of a degree violation

  2. While it is not an Elliott consideration at this point, I do believe that the relatively lackluster action in today's trading is due to the fact that everyone seems to be holding their breath waiting for tomorrow's pre-market release of the CPI number. While expectations are for a tame reading, a hot number could reignite inflation fears and tank the markets.

  3. Interesting is the fact that even with all the gyrations in the futures this morning the index ETF's are still within the sideways drift of the last several days giving away nothing as to the market's intentions.

  4. Hi TJ,
    May i ask for a your long term count either on post or video this weekend.
    I am getting more inclined for bull market ended count(seeing the volatility) than our original count.
    There is a lot to learn here and no one better to explain it than you.

    1. Hi Manu. Posted in the next day's update. And thanks for the comment.