Since there have been a lot of comments made about the curious nature of this morning’s US Dollar Index moves, I thought I would post another Eight Fold Path chart – this time not on a stock index, but on the US Dollar Index, the count of which is currently “in progress”. Again, this is the only truly ‘objective’ way I know to count the Elliott Wave impulse in real time, and to help eliminate all of the guess-work about labels.
The ‘implication’ or prediction from this chart is that since wave 2
(minor 2) is a FLAT wave, then wave 4, will be something other. Wave 4
already has a clear (a), (b), (c), down in a zigzag, so it is ‘possible’
that wave 4 ended there. And while such a count is ‘possible’ and would
provide the needed alternation, it does not attack the lower channel,
yet, and it makes wave 4 quite short in time – which is opposite to the
typical personality of fourth waves.
So, it is also possible, and more likely, that minor wave 4 becomes a
triangle to ‘provide more time’ for the wave to attack the lower
channel boundary. Further, because wave 2 is a FLAT, there ‘should not’
be a new B wave high within wave 4. Any higher high would be minor 5.
So, while the ‘potential’ impulse is playing out, there is a caveat :
wave 2 is again a FLAT – which is not typical of second waves :
possible but not typical. So, if the EWO breaks below -40%, or the
potential fourth wave breaks the channel and does not quickly rebound,
then the Elliottician must simply accept the result that 1,2,3 was
actually the alternate A,B,C. The 1,2,3 and A,B,C are equivalent until
they are not.
Followers of my blog and in some live chat rooms will recognize that nothing in this count has been changed since it's inception, and "special note" was made when wave 3 was 1.618 x 1 - live and in real time.
Cheers and enjoy the chart.