Monday, September 21, 2015

Invalidation Moves Up to 1953 Cash

Below is a chart of the SP500 5-minute bars that was posted after market on Friday, which suggested we had A-B-C down to minute iv on the hourly chart of the potential upwardly contracting Leading Diagonal on the daily chart. The chart showed what is an impulse A wave, and a contracting ending diagonal C wave. This chart was criticized by some, saying, "you see too many diagonals and are probably just caught long and are trying to justify it. Too much of this behavior will cause your ruin, because that's what I used to do." Here is the updated chart as of this morning.

SP500 Cash Five Minute Follow-Up Chart

The true intention of the chart was not the count relative to any of my positions. I don't have many 'nevers', but I try never to mix wave labeling with accounting. It was to explain the chop at the end of the session relative to the impulse character early in the session, and it appears to. While some may have been turned around, caught off guard or dismayed by the futures having been down -13 last night, only to turn around to be +12 by the time the market opened - this analyst was not. Many, many times the overnight futures do not leave their tracks in the cash market. And, while many times the futures do have an impact, a very good strategy is often to wait for the cash market open to see where things "really are". So, for example you could have watched the Packers beat the Seahawks in peace last night - as I did.

So, do I make this post to make some hay of a short term rise, or for some other personal reason? No, the reason for the post is further analysis. From the low of wave C we have had a "five wave rise" with a gap in wave three. That means the "invalidation point" for the overall contracting leading diagonal scenario now increases from 1930 to 1953, the low of the C wave. That's the way this process works. If we've just had - between the end of the session Friday, and early today - a five wave rise, it should NOT be taken out lower unless some other pattern is at play. So, let me say it again, the invalidation point for the hourly leading diagonal now rises to 1953.

Invalidation points are not mystery. They are not hard to understand. They are a-kin to 'stops'. Hope this helps. Cheers and enjoy the chart! E-T

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