Sorry I really meant the everything bubble. But like one of those bagels at your favorite coffee shop that has every conceivable manner of topping and seed on it, this market has now really taken on the characteristics of an 'everything bubble'. We knew about the debt bubble, we knew about the equity bubble, we knew about the housing bubble, we knew about the crypto bubble - to name a few. But now we also know we have an A-I bubble, and further, a war bubble. And that means bubbles in commodities, like oil, and even still Gold. Some would even add that we have a bubble in war babble. And now you can add a bubble in government owned enterprises. Intel was not the first. A former President had the U.S. government buy a lot of shares of a flagging car company called General Motors. Of course, that was at the bottom of one of the more notorious financial problems in 2009. This is near a market high. It certainly feels like the stakeholders are truly getting "all in".
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe we need a bubble in planet ownership. Oh, wait, yeah, there is a certain IPO scheduled for 12th June isn't there? Something about rockets and space exploration, I think.
Meanwhile, back at the chart ...
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Days since 18-day SMA |
This is just a reminder that price has not hit the 18-day simple moving average in the last 35 bars. That is almost twice the length of the average. And all-day today after the 10 AM bar price did not even hit the intraday 18-per on the ES 30-min chart. No worries. I'm sure the algorithm is going to do what's best for us all in the end. Right? Ha. Meanwhile, can I interest you in some cream-cheese?
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Cream Cheese??!! That would not be very GOUDA!! :)
ReplyDeleteDon't forget the fraud bubble.
ReplyDeleteGood point ☝️
DeleteIMO, gold is not in a bubble. Relative to Debt to GDP, it is not a bubble at all. Stocks can definitely be considered a bubble but what gets interesting is the fact that in nominal terms they may not decline but in real terms won't go anywhere. That's why I'm expecting a triangle for Supercycle Wave [IV]
ReplyDeleteWith a paper float some 500X the available metal, some would argue that it is woefully under-priced! 😉
DeleteA triangle for SuperCycle IV also works well for alternation principle vs. Wave II from a the Great Depression. It also gives us a long 10-15 years of reset.
DeleteLet me know if you disagree with that thesis.
How wide do you think will the widest part of the triangle?
Can you imagine trading during this 15 years? The wave 4 grind will completely destroy the automatic, indexed based approach to 401k that’s been working so well
DeleteNo net gain for 15+ years has happened before, in the 70's. Those big swings didn't hurt me at all as a chartist. The "never- sells" will lose their millionaire status.
DeleteLook at oil, the market go opposite
ReplyDeleteThat why tramp make a deal
ReplyDeleteAt the other bubble the first sign was Russell, am I right?
ReplyDeleteWhy do you think AI it's a bubble?
ReplyDeleteCPCE put/call just recorded new lows
ReplyDeleteReminder: today is the last trading day of the month - which 'often', not always, sees end-of-month window-dressing sloppiness. Then, Monday is the first trading day of the new month which often sees the passive inflows. Sometimes these are front-run on the Friday before. TJ.
ReplyDeleteCompletely agree with all but one. I do not think the artificial insemination market is in a bubble at all. Total US cattle herd lowest in 75 years. 😀
ReplyDelete🤣🤣🤣
DeleteWe are on the last wave structure..makes sense with the last day of the month. So it turns leither today or monday
ReplyDeleteIs it possible that NDX has invalidated CED( contracting ending diagonal) but SPX didn't? and now NDX is in EED as the move has been a lot bigger than SPX.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: here's some window-dressing, let's see what becomes of it.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h1DJswhr/
TJ