Don't exhaust yourself this weekend. Every YouTuber, stock trader and technical analyst will try to sell you their wares (trying to at least get your attention for views, clicks, and/or to get you to purchase memberships, ads, or subscriptions). Don't bother. Get some rest and relaxation instead. The ES futures made a weekly "pinbar" or "spinning top" candle - the likes of which we have not seen in months. It is not confirmed yet. Still, it is a green pinbar which is a tad weaker than had it been a red-bodied candle.
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| ES Futures - Weekly - Pinbar |
So, it is simple. The candle is either confirmed with a significantly lower confirming candle next week - or it is not - and it is invalidated with a higher high candle. Elliott analysts know how to handle both.
Have an excellent start to the weekend,
TraderJoe
ES seems to.have made 5 down. 5th still working
ReplyDelete.seems like
Look at all indexes and notice that we are at the top of the upper channel dating back to decades or in the case of the SPX/ Dow ---100 years. We went parabolic by all measures. The Dow topped in February and refuses to make new highs. The transports have declined over 20%. Bond yields are moving higher, the new Fed is always tested by the market within months, and we are in mid-term election year which average 20% drawdowns. We have a good chance of filling the down gaps today on Monday, but you are basically picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer at these resistance levels. The QQQ only needed 14 trading days to crash 30% in 2000 right after the top. It crashed 70% in one year. Don't forget that new tariffs hit by July.
ReplyDeleteOne metric I watch closely is the behavior of the FIRST wave down after a top at this degree of trend: it tends to take out multiple S/R levels. That kind of momentum not quite evident today as price aggressively bought off the bottom and NOT subsequently taking out the morning lows, even after hours. Unless that happens in futures Sunday night, I will be remaining agnostic for the time being.
ReplyDeleteJust to be clear (regarding 'multiple S/R levels'), the market could not make it up to the R1 pivot overnight. Then, it dropped down through the daily pivot, the S1 pivot and the S2 pivot technically meeting the definition you posted of 'multiple'. And the ES futures took out the morning lows. So, if you want something more than that, please be specific. TJ.
DeleteYou are correct. I took another look at futures as well and there was a lower low. Looks like 5 down.
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