The OHLC version of the chart in the prior post for the weekly ES futures is below. Yes, there are ways that higher highs can be made. But the risks are piling up. Even a 38% retrace shown is almost 1,000 ES points from here. And deeper retraces are certainly possible.
Besides retrace risk, there is also the risk that the entire upward movement is over. If the up wave sequence is an A,B,C instead of the five waves shown, then there is a (likely lesser) risk that Intermediate wave (4) could be undercut.
For the short term, it is suggested to pay close attention to the 18-day SMA, and whether price closes above it or below it on a daily basis.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
/CL looks like huge falling wedge.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY CFD) 15-min: looks like we've gotten enough waves to consider a barrier triangle, as blue a,b,c or black w,x,y.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OJdv91mr/
TJ
..the three-wave count looks ok at this point.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/06zW4qBY/
TJ
..prior C wave high was just exceeded in the CFD in the after-hours.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0QMSsay3/
TJ
Just info - another new high tonight for the $NYAD. No sign of a true bear market starting yet. Payroll Report scheduled for tomorrow. TJ.
ReplyDeleteI believe there was over one year of divergence between the DJI and the AD line in 1928-29. As you have recently pointed out, we haven't even gotten started on such a divergence in 2025-26.
DeleteTriangle in TOPT:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LZHaJVab/
Triangle in GOOGL ... and an incipient breakout:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/y8S4rLpj/
ES/SPY (CFD) 15-min: the up wave since the 8th is a mess in a channel. I don't see anything like 3rd wave behavior and the channel is breaking lower. May call for a retest and/or break of the low on the 8th.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tPdJEN0N/
TJ
..prior local high exceeded in a turn-around bar. Not sure how it counts. TJ.
DeleteMaybe.ending diagonal not.complete
DeleteLooks like another abc up from yesterday's low. A high today into the weekend would be very convincing
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: five-waves up since the turn-around candle. Interesting how they do that for the noon news. Not sure what to make of the rest, yet, as with the new high, the prior waves are questionable.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jRAWbLwD/
TJ
..larger diagonal and higher highs possible, but likely not below 6,984.50 ES Mar futures. TJ.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aNvy4Nor/
ReplyDelete