On the SPY Cash 4-hr chart below, it is possible that the last wave up is a truncation. That is because it 1) counts better as an upward wave, 2) it is still inside the lower trend line, and 3) it did retrace over 78% of the prior up wave. Today's wave is the one that broke the more pertinent three-touch trend line.
As you probably know, today's up movement after the open did not close the gap shown by the blue bar. So that down gap is open as is its companion up gap after the first of the year. So, too, is the gap after 17 Dec still open, and many others.
As far as a downward count, I'm just counting as a tentative a/i for the moment until there is a meaningful upward retrace, a potential lower low, and/or a more definitive channel to work with.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
The diagonal downward counted yesterday, if indeed NOT ending, should nicely set up a deep enough retrace to tag the underside of that 3-touch trend line with concomitant closure of that open gap, an auspicious sign for the bears. Rapid closure of initial gaps down absent a new high often suggests Mr. Market not leaving "Unfinished Business" at onset of a significant trend change.
ReplyDeleteES Daily - now the front-month only contract has exceeded the length of the December decline. So, in one way, contracting diagonal counting should stop.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FsREBpLD/
However, nothing precludes a much larger diagonal from forming where the down leg is 62 - 81% or so. In other words, this 'could be' a,b,c up of (i) of ((v)).
TJ.
ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen price is now over the overnight high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/THYz4jhh/
TJ
Again a TACO 😋
DeleteUpward correction looks almost complete here on the hourly chart. Still under the 18ma and Vix still above hers.
ReplyDeleteFutures gap dutifully sealed. Now cash session to complete mission.
ReplyDeleteMission complete by cash. Good luck
DeleteReally I still see a gap. Can this be the start of 5th of expanded tp downisde.. need to keep an eye on it until proven otherwise
DeleteMaybe a pop here on big tech earnings, then another try to sell off. Feb is seasonally weak.
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - in SPY cash, the 'close-to-open' gap is not filled (yet). It does not have to, but it could.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/V5YYNupc/
TJ
Clx has a great setup from ew perspective.
ReplyDeleteI listened with some amusement as Bloomberg News talking heads touted the idea that the perennial BTF dippers were once again correct to pounce on the recent decline and were amply rewarded for doing so. They, along with Dimon of JPM Chase kept insisting the rally was fueled primarily by 'Retail Investors/Traders. I wonder if they meant the "retail investors" who before the decline, were as bullish as they have ever been...?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/qqq_volume_spike_is_a_bottom_marker/
ReplyDeleteAre we making a triangle in qqq nq and spx(running triangle)....
ReplyDeleteGOLD 1-hr: as price approaches the round-number, here is the latest channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PqwnEj3P/
Breaking it might be meaningful, but at the moment the daily slow stochastic is embedded, and price is still over the 18-SMA, so the bias is still positive.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.