The chart below, the daily chart of the ES futures (roll-over contract) shows where one old Wall $treet adage comes from. That adage is, "IF the bears have Thanksgiving... then the bulls will eat Christmas dinner." As you can see from the chart, prices declined before the typical third week in November (although Thanksgiving was a little later this year on the 27th instead of the more typical 23 - 25th). Then, they rallied into Christmas.
And prices continued on with the Santa Claus rally into the New Year. Hopefully, the turkey was not undercooked, or half-baked! Keep in mind, it is pretty rare to get an eight-month rally without so much as a 38% retracement.
But now, the Christmas ornaments (the red & green fractals) can outline some of the risks involved in this up wave. Yes, the wedge can get wedgier. But, the down (red) fractals can break, too.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/us/politics/jerome-powell-fed-inquiry-trump.html
ReplyDeleteAlice, welcome to wonderland
Spy 2hr - 5 waves down on the initial drop. Hell of a retrace though.
ReplyDeleteI know we are looking at diagonal but the previous high can also be counted as flat and the present 5 down as c...waves are really tricky as in.providing too many options based the future events
DeleteI view TJ's count above as correct.
DeleteI am not disputing it ed has been my count too. I just think algorithms keeping options open based on the cpi and earning season to come
DeleteSo how do you trade that kind of opinion?
DeleteTomorrow will give clarity. We already know the ed count. Here is the real bullish play. First arrow is 1, second arrow is 1 of 3. The third arrow is start of 3 of 3. Tomorrow cpi data should give calrity https://www.tradingview.com/x/kXTHzdg0/
DeleteAll of the RSI and MACD negative divergences belie such a count.
ReplyDeleteI know but they can all change with strong push up
DeleteI have to play what I see. No wishing and hoping allowed.
DeleteIf new high the either a of 5th of diagonal otherwise just impulsive wave
Deletelol, 50/50 eh?
DeleteNo just traded a or impulsive now wait for correction then trade c of diagonal or another impulsive. No guessing.
DeleteWhere's your a at?
DeleteWell my count can't be perfect I got around 1 pm cost. Seems like the wave played out for more hour after that. We dont want to upset tj so lets not discuss the trading but keep in mind we see 5 down in futures overnight so high probability that yesterday high was a flat
DeleteCost = cst got out
DeleteThanks Tj. It is indeed a rare bird :)
ReplyDeleteNew ATH in Russell and S&P500, DJIA close but not quite, NDX lagging...I expect they all will...
ReplyDeleteES/SPy (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, this can be another a,b,c in the diagonal series depending on how the day pans out.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/S36ShvSL/
There's not much here yet, and it can certainly carry over to the cash session.
TJ
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ReplyDeleteAnyone else see a triangle on QQQ?
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing triangles, diagonals, and wedges everywhere.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ