As we have shown over the last several days, the ES futures currently appear to be wedging in an up trend. It is difficult to say that a wedge is over until key lengths are exceeded lower.
Yesterday's break of the initial wedge line still looks like a three-wave affair. So, the lower wedge line has been redrawn. Two key lengths to watch are the lengths of the 02 Jan down leg, and the 18 Dec down leg. Only if these are exceeded might it possibly have downward implications.
GOLD (futures GC) have been wedging on the two-hour chart, and the wedge was recently broken lower. Key lengths need to be monitored here, too. A GC 2-hr chart is below.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
potential exp diagonal forming in AMZN since the November low
ReplyDeleteI don't see where you get that conclusion from. Although the current up wave is longer into 12 Jan, the current down wave is too short. It must be 'longer' than the prior down wave into 17 Dec to begin to suspect the pattern. It's nowhere near there yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3eE4Qhen/
TJ
so it's not "fair" to say potential diagonal forming? seems to me that a lot of EW analysts project potential waves into the future based on recent waves
DeleteThe Principle of Equivalence says, especially near a top, one needs to 'weigh the odds'. You said, 'potential expanding diagonal'. That is among the most rare patterns. How can you distinguish that from this triangle, which is already a 'legal' pattern as wave ⓔ has already overlapped wave 3 as it must - by the rules - in a running triangle?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/A3hOp9o3/
One pattern is already legal. One is not yet.
TJ
got it, thanks
Deletewelcome. TJ.
DeleteHello TJ,
ReplyDeleteI wanted to understand the following from you:
The monthly RSI of gold is currently around 94 and has been above 90 for the last few months.
The last time gold’s monthly RSI was this high (around 94) was in 1973.
What are the implications of this? Also, which levels, if broken, could lead to a significant correction?
The RSI at 90+ on a monthly basis indicates "strong momentum", not much else that is useful. But we already knew that which is why my last monthly post indicated we were in a strong Primary ③ wave. See 27 Dec post at this link.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2025/12/gold-weekly-daily.html
The reason why I say it tells nothing much more useful comes from this daily chart.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CrirQzD9/
Price is over the 18-day SMA. The implication is that the daily bias is up, until there is a close below the "line in the sand". The daily slow stochastic is fully embedded. The implication is the Smart Money will likely 'try' to buy for the upper Bollinger Band until or unless the red line closes under the 79 level. The moving averages are aligned as 18 above, 100, above 200 in a currently bullish configuration. There is much more to the daily chart than meets most people's eyes, including projected target, initial support, and two potential signals of a bias change. If you have not read them thoroughly (maybe over & over), I urge you to read or re-read my post on a Paraphrase of Ira Epstein's guidelines for trading.
https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
It can answer a lot of questions for you, and I didn't spend the time doing it for nothing.
Regards, TJ.
ES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr: potential triangle. I can suggest it. But I can't swear to it.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/87THzayQ/
Invalidation level is indicated in red.
TJ
Futures did invalidate by a couple of ticks lower. 'Possible' smaller degree w-x-y down to iv but mind the overlap warning; if overlap is invoked then might be another a, up, at the high, and b, down, with a 'c' up to follow.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ObZE8KMk/
TJ
GOLD 2-hr: GOLD is again falling below the 2-hr wedge pointed out above, without having made a higher high first. Suggests placing a wave-counting-stop above 4,630.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Jp3wIbut/
TJ
ES/SPY CFD; overlap hit. This is why I am not playing any up waves. TJ.
ReplyDeleteExpanding D or wyz
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe .786 retracement of the wave off the 11/21/25 low in HOOD has been taken out. This is common since the proposed wave 1 off the low was a leading contracting diagonal. Monitor the sub waves, adjust upside wave 3 target.
ReplyDeleteAny chance this triangle playing out
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ozPAHn3v/
While there's always 'a chance', unless the triangle is symmetrical, meaning you have measured both sides to be equal, it is less likely. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. Not promoting anyone but not able to find any error in the long term count. Can you point an error.
ReplyDeletehttps://x.com/PUGStockMarket/status/2012140368964518004?s=20
..too many to count: just one example, off the bottom i is larger than 1. This is a degree definition violation. If a wave is claimed to be of smaller degree, it must 'actually' be smaller in price and time. Do not post this person's work here again. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ