Tri or Di

During the day today, we noted how the market just ping-ponged back-and-forth between the intraday Bollinger Bands, likely delivering whiplashes galore. The futile volatility, likely due to the end-of-month window-dressing we noted continued until about 2:00 pm at which time, the futures decided to front-run the likely first-of-the-month money with a vengeance, before backing off a bit. Today is the end of the month, the end of the quarter and maybe the end of continuous government (just kidding, we don't know about a government shutdown or not, yet). We said that an upward triangle or diagonal was still possible. It still is. Here is the ES futures 4-Hr chart showing two very 'loose' possibilities.

It seems like a triangle might take a lot more time as price is nowhere near the apex. The complex leg of a triangle 'could' form. A diagonal could take less time, but it could also have much wilder internal waves. For the contracting diagonal, upward, price would need to make a higher high, and this third wave would need to stay shorter than the first. For the triangle, price needs to stay above that prior Ⓒ wave - which is pretty darn deep already.

And yes, a top could be in place, but then the diagonal would be downward, not upward, and that is not even close to being on the board, yet.

So, for the time being, both patterns could represent something of a no one's land until something recognizable forms. We'll watch and try to suggest, but it could be quite tricky. In short, it's The Fourth Wave Conundrum, and it happens at every degree of trend.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe