Prechter says, "stocks are over-valued". Nobody listens. Powell says, "stocks are fairly highly valued" and the market sells off. Here is the current count on the ES 30-min chart. If the high has been set it is because the triangle preceded the last wave up in the move.
If not, here is the likely alternate - being still in a diagonal until the low is exceeded.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Kinda reminds of "Do ya feel lucky,well do ya"
ReplyDeleteYou forgot "Punk"...!
DeleteES 30-min: intraday wave counting screen updated for daily pivots and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nH5zHTjt/
New fractals at the market high and low.
TJ
..first down (red) fractal back just undercut lower. TJ.
DeleteES now down to 90%; usual caveat; 'b' wave of Flat or next impulse lower. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: new lower low. Daily, too! TJ.
DeleteES Daily - low of 9/22 two days ago exceeded lower. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: likely 'initial' target is equality with prior down wave at 6673-4. TJ
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: 4 closes below the lower intraday band, drops the odds to 2 - 3% of the next close outside of the band (not impossible, just lower odds). TJ.
Delete..now 5 closes below the intraday band dropping the odds to 1 - 2% (not impossible, just lower odds). TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: close inside the band; resets the number of consecutive closes. TJ.
DeleteWhat are they upto? keep changing their long term count. https://www.neowave.com/tradingblog/blog.asp?bid=178
ReplyDeleteWe can't see the new count you are referring to. The link goes to a blog; no chart. TJ.
DeleteTheir charts from may
Deletehttps://www.neowave.com/tradingblog/blog.asp?bid=201
(does not make sense to me now as upside exceeded and yesterday blogpost states after 2-3 years Bull market will start).
Infact PUG charts have been consistent.
https://pugsma.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/
( I still find a lot of degree violations in the august chart)
@manu .. these charts have not been consistent; 1/31 & 3/14 charts call for triangles that did not occur. Please use some critical thinking. Anyone can publish a chart that calls for stock prices to go up forever. TJ.
Deleteagreed but see 11/22/22 and from 3-5-2021 till 22 charts. They were targeting p5/c3 at 8150 and targets of primary waves have been consistent. If somebody is a long term investor this works. Certainly not for traders.
DeleteES 30-min: initial target of 6,673-4 met and exceeded lower in the after hours. TJ.
ReplyDeleteAlways amused at folk who claim forecasting equity prices is a "Science". I guess they must be unfamiliar with "Chaos Theory". Nassim Taleb is correct imo. Mr. Neely has subscriptions to sell. 😊
ReplyDeleteOut on a bit of a limb there, Tachy. Actually, Chaos has been a Science since 1987. I read about it back then.
DeleteChaos: A New Science
It is used in weather forecasting extensively, earthquake prediction, etc. It is the "exponential" part people don't 'like' or can't get used to. They prefer the "near-linear" portions of trajectories.
TJ
Indeed! Scientific paradigms have many tenets. People who use the term to describe what they do seem to forget one of its most fundamental tenets, namely, PREDICTIVE value. As you have pointed out to readers so often, in any kind of market analysis we are dealing with PROBABILITIES...
DeleteYes, and probabilities with "fat tails", ala Nassim and Benoit Mandelbrot before him. TJ.
Deletehi，TJ, seems that the high has been set on this Monday 9/22？
ReplyDeleteHi Robert: clearly "a" high was set, but the question is of what degree. If you will look at the daily chart below, the FOMC low is the down (red) fractal. The high is the up (green) fractal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DGMfOaaS/
Until the FOMC low is exceeded lower, then 'either' a final triangle or diagonal is still possible. I have to keep true to the craft. I am not a fortune-teller. I measure waves.
Price today is 'still' above the 18-day SMA, and we are looking to see if the daily slow stochastic becomes unembedded.
TJ
ES futures; new low of day. TJ
ReplyDeleteContact with 18-day SMA. TJ
DeleteES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. Y'all will probably hate this count, but it is the only one I can find compatible with degree labeling. Right now, there is a "running b/ii" wave. And a non-overlapping fourth and fifth wave are needed for an impulse. Please see the detailed length considerations in the mid/lower left.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rUojvdlZ/
Each wave is 'measured'. That's what I do.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ