In my last post on Nvidia, I said that I was looking for a fourth wave to come down and attack the lower channel line. As far as the daily chart below, shows, that has happened.
Note that the formation may be a barrier triangle because wave ④ has come down to overlap wave ③. This could result in a pop above the upper barrier trend line. If so, the usual triangle projection of 'the widest width of the triangle added to the breakout point' allows for a projection to ~200. But barrier triangles can be tricky and do not have to reach the typical targets because of the energy already expended to try to breach the barrier.
None-the-less, the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO/AO) has made a reasonable fourth wave travel near the zero line and could allow for a fifth wave higher. This could also result in higher prices for the NQ/NDX and ES at some point.
On the downside, the triangle would likely invalidate below the 165/170 level, and a possible Flat wave could form instead. The EWO has divergences what looks like the extended first wave, and if the first is, indeed, the extended one, then the fifth wave would have to be shorter than the third. Let's see how it goes.
This is the second post this weekend, and if you have not seen the first one, you may wish to read it now at this LINK. Have an excellent rest of day, weekend & holiday, if you are celebrating it.
TraderJoe
ES has a new intraday low after the 09:30 am low. Price is below the 18-day SMA. The daily slow stochastic has lost the embedded status. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting screen. It looks like the first-of-the-month money is now entering the market.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t7Ng5rCP/
TJ
Anybody look at gold and see a running triangle from 2011 to 2023?
ReplyDeleteI cannot get a 2wk chart to work, but from using timeframes on both ends it seems like the EWO would look right.
Barrier triangle or expanded flat. In the triangle, looks like the wave at blue arrow would have missed it's target.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/S6BEd8F6/
So, while it is currently 'acting' as a barrier triangle, don't be surprised if it devolves down into the expanded flat. There are no pull-backs yet to the larger up channel.
TJ
With the larger 2011 - 2023 scenario there are three problems: 1) there is no typical 62% retrace waves in the triangle, this is the biggest problem. 2) the 2020 - 2022 candles significantly over-shoot the top. This is the second biggest problem, and 3) the EWO does not come back to near zero in 160 candles at the end of the triangle, a smaller problem.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YLd7ovQ7/
Instead, it 'looks' like an impulse from 2016 and probably should be counted as such.
TJ
THX
DeleteSince 2016 are you counting an impulse that we would be in the 5th and extended wave?
DeleteYes.
DeleteTJ
ES fighting with 18-day SMA currently. Let's see what the top-of-the-hour news brings.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/plUQtW8E/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ