On the daily ES chart, we showed a larger parallel which is still pending resolution. Below on the ES 4-Hr chart are two smaller parallels that are also pending resolution.
 |
| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Parallels Pending Resolution |
We showed in the comments today - using the SPY 15-min proxy - how the smaller (dashed) channel can be making a fourth wave according to the Elliott Wave Oscillator. Tonight, the futures are traveling downward a bit more, but nothing is resolved yet. Bear in mind that neither of these parallels has to hold if this is a corrective wave. And the larger of these two channels may hold more risk. It's a time for caution and local counting.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
ES 4-hr: we have resolution of the inner (dashed) parallel with a higher high. Can go higher and maintain the count if it wishes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/szLhwg0E/
TJ
Thoughts?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/1ak5v3
Might explain 2023-2024 bull took plenty of time.
2022 likely the bigger bear for tech (and SXP?) with significantly higher discount rates, relative to covid.
The rather huge wave to 2018/19 is 'not' of Intermediate degree. That would break degree definitions. Further, I am not a fan of backdating such large waves and saying "oh, i found it". That is currently what a large EW firm is doing, and it wreaks of incompetence. TJ.
DeleteI had previously shown this count in the NDX, and I am sticking with it due to the five factors shown on the chart. This includes the extreme difficulty of counting this wave which is a characteristic of many "B" waves. I think the fact that the up wave is based largely on FED manipulation and is therefore a 'phony' wave essentially reflecting the inflation and money creation is a "B" wave personality - not to mention the extreme speculation.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fWp5J1cN/
TJ
Trump and Bessent will never change China's economic philosophy
ReplyDeletefor they will fail spectacularly if they. do. It is based on coercion, theft, and competing by selling at below cost of production. Foreign companies must " partner" with the CCP and allow parents and trade secrets to be stolen. The SOEs then manufacture and sell product below cost, taking market share from foreign businesses. The celebration is high folly!
TJ, if you're write, what will happen to spy?
ReplyDeleteIf NDX go to the lower line?
ReplyDeletesimilar for SPY, eventually. TJ.
DeleteThanks
ReplyDeleteCould somebody give me a .786 retrace number on ES from ATH?
ReplyDeleteLol! Hourly looks like price consolidation. Maybe one more higher...?
DeleteAs of the 08:30 ET am high, it is 81%. TJ.
DeleteThx, stupid busy.
DeleteSPY 15-min: based on the EWO the up wave may have completed properly. There's a lower odds chance it could extend, so watch the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3XYMVdHO/
TJ
I am thinking triangle on the 5th of 5th. To be completed this afternoon...could be wrong
ReplyDeleteEs seems complete
DeleteES has three longer waves down that can be counted as an expanding diagonal with the fourth longer than the second and overlapping the first. Argues for watching the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AlTgqWTn/
TJ
There it is...!
ReplyDeleteI guess we are going to new high this is unstoppable
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ