The two-weekly chart of the Dow futures, below, has just a few things new on it, on the continued count of a contracting diagonal at log scale shown in several prior posts. First, it is the clear fact that Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO) with 135 candles on the chart, dipped below zero for the overlapping fourth wave, Intermediate (4).
Second is the fact that there appears to be a Minor A wave up, now clearly on the chart - with the clear alternate noted in red below the price. One might be curious how this Minor A wave up could possibly be counted. Probably my count is not like yours, but it is below.
Even though the Minor A wave structure looks simple enough on the 2-weekly time scale (first chart), to count any five-wave up wave it simply must be counted as an expanding diagonal per the second chart. That is because without the diagonal one runs into degree-definition violations at every turn. But with the diagonal, all three up swings can be of the same degree. And, still, this pattern is supposed to be among the rarest patterns, but here it is in front of your eyes.
Again, the clear alternate for this wave has to be Minor B of (4) with C down to follow, and the second chart would be counted as ⓦ-ⓧ-ⓨ as a B wave in that case. The alternate just means the EWO and price can go a little lower in (4) before the fifth wave begins. That is certainly permitted by the method, and it might allow overlap in the S&P500 so we need to be watchful for it.
In either case, we are expecting downward movement which may have started on Friday. Again, there is no amount of downward movement that will surprise me.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
It seems like we've been waiting for that final 5th wave for so long now.
ReplyDeleteYes, we have. At least we've been on the correct side in waiting unlike some major EWI companies that have newsletters to sell. TJ.
DeleteStunning how they always seem to get the big picture muddled! 😊
DeleteWelcome. Thx for saying. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. While the chart is delayed the usual 10-min or so, you can see 1) prices gapped lower from even the futures close on Friday and the last four down (red) fractals have been exceeded lower, 2) the lower intraday band has been tagged, and 3) the 100-period SMA on this time-frame has been tagged and price is starting to rebound.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7m2IRwUx/
TJ
I like how that circle 5 in the second chart is dying in the lower half of the overall megaphone.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: so far, the upswing headed toward the daily pivot but missed the close-to-open gap by two ticks, so far, and has since fallen off a bit.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/A4yzV8HV/
TJ
A c = a up, was made to the 50% level, so far. There are ways for a correction to extend so just be cautious. TJ.
DeleteIFF friday high holds, then potentially there is downside to low 5500s if not to low 4900s
ReplyDeletepotential downside: mes chart
will have to watch what the ew count is going to be
ES 30-min: overnight, price got down to the S2 pivot ('possibly' in a diagonal or just an a-b-c, maybe of a larger diagonal), and then has retraced to and above the daily pivot.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1VDyoDtX/
It looks to me like the daily pivot is the critical marker today - above it is still bullish and below it might start something lower again.
Price has several (three) closes above the band indicating the usual caution about the next closes, about 2 - 4% odds of the next close above the band (not impossible, just lower odds).
TJ
After one close inside the band, resetting the number of consecutive closes there is now a higher high, exceeding 90% retrace, with the usual 'B wave or next impulse' caveat. TJ.
DeleteR1 is touched and a higher high than Fri. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. In the chart Glenn Neely blog- https://www.neowave.com/tradingblog/blog.asp?bid=201
ReplyDeletehow under ew rules it was determined that October 2023 low will not be broken in next 50 years? He is also increasing the 50 years barrier earlier from covid low(2020) then moved it up to October 2022 and then October 2023 in various blogposts. How is this measured?
You need to ask him; not me. I don't see any rules involved. TJ.
DeleteThanks and I find your Eight fold path better than Neowaves to understand EW.
Delete