The Moody's downgrade created some overnight volatility, which was reversed or erased by a slightly higher close today. Was the debt erased? Heck no. This is just part of the market's ongoing efforts to convince neophytes that "nothing matters". Eventually, that won't be true. For our part today's minor higher high in the ES 4-hr chart looks to have done nothing but created an extension in the fourth sub-minuette wave, iv, with better alternation in the chart below - and with today as part or most of v.
The minor new high created a larger divergence with the MACD, as is shown by the brown dotted line. But we maintain this larger channel has not been filled out to the downside. And this may yet happen with the MACD heading back towards the zero line. So, we'll see after a volatile up Monday whether there will be a turn on Tuesday.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
TJ, ndx in the top channel, what about spy?
ReplyDeleteLady S. I do not mean to be difficult, but I am not a mind reader. If you want answers to questions, can you please put some effort in your questions? What channel are you talking about? What time-frame? Why do you need to know this now? Thx. Tj.
DeleteYou give us the long term channel of ndx, and I asked if you can give us the long term spy channel
ReplyDeleteNot close.
DeleteWhich one of the channel you use, from March or April
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: on a much smaller time scale I can't rule out this diagonal yet for the fifth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BXyj3exG/
Note the invalidation level and watch the lengths. If it fails completely, then maybe it's the truncation red *.
TJ.
SPY 15-min: mmm,hmm .. a breakdown bar and it's losing the 'right look' of the prior diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DwKq7Av0/
TJ
Indeed! Putative 4th looks to exceed 2.
DeleteES 30-min: I won't constantly make reference to the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen, but if you were watching it like I was, you saw a) the two closes below the lower band in an over-sold condition (odds 5 - 7%) near the final bell, b) the retrace back to the 18-per SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/m9SAcKs4/
The algo remains in full control until it isn't. One simply must remain patient.
So, now we have the possibility of 1) a triangle at 62% or lower, or 2) an expanding diagonal, downward. I lean a little towards the latter as downward length is needed.
TJ
Joe, I noticed the NYSE AD LINE is at new all time highs. Doesn’t this usually portend new highs? Thanks
ReplyDeleteYes, and that would be congruent with the larger Intermediate blue (5) shown on the longer-term charts. TJ.
DeleteES 60-min: from what I can see, we did get an expanding diagonal downwards in good shape. With ⑤ > ③ > ①, and ④ > ② with ④ overlapping wave ① but not traveling beyond the end of ②.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TmZ3cQ2N/
We have since had a retrace to come up and break the upper trend line, and although more correction is possible, that is all it 'needed' to do.
Please remember at this point we are looking for a Minor B wave down, which should be composed of minute ⓐ, ⓑ, ⓒ at minimum - 'perhaps' a more complex structure or a triangle could form, as well.
TJ
This expanding diagonal to downside is a or c..or we don't know yet. Thks
DeleteNever mind lol
DeleteES 1-hr: now there's something to the downside. We must use the Principle of Equivalence to count i/a, ii/b, iii/c for the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ribPIdxS/
TJ
ES 1-hr: chart update as of noon. Only thing not to like is that the low was made in the after-hours. So, being patient here.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x3sQsMb7/
TJ
Good sized drop end of the day.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ