It's not every day you get to see a count like this one on the ES 2-Hr chart (September futures only), so it is worth studying. Look at that fourth wave! It is something to remember.
Note: the roll-over contract looks even uglier than this one, but it is what it is. There's a good probability that wave v, up, is over, but confirmation does not come until the low of wave iv is exceeded lower. And it would be nice to see how the overnight fares. So, let's see how it goes. Due to how high up in the wave count we are, an exceptional amount of patience, calm and flexibility are needed in counting these sequences.
It is interesting how all the 'seasonal' players have so far been incorrect. September is currently an up month and not a down one. Maybe that will change in the last week(s).
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Hi! Take a look at September 2007. The Fed also lowered rates by 50 basis points that month. The structure of those months is starting to look familiar :). Best Regards!
ReplyDeleteFascinating 4th wave. I read somewhere double and triple ZZ occur to extend corrections in price. It would seem also in time.
ReplyDeleteCould it have formed George Lindsay's 3 peaks and a domed house? Like you say TJ it would have to drop below wave iv. Lindsay would observe a 3 step into the high after the distribution 3 peaks. Interesting formation that counts in Elliott but somewhat rare. We shall see. Thanks for posting TJ
ReplyDeletePrice action imo continues to indicate consolidation so I suspect we are not quite done, despite small time frame patterns. The degree of trend change anticipated should leave no doubt when it has finally arrived
Delete@tachyon .. the link below @08:48 am ET shows a way for your 'corrective' instincts to play out (if the market choses). TJ.
DeleteI still think this is an abc. 1-2 on the chart being A-B, then C up Is completing soon with one more wave up. The relentless move up definitely looks like a C wave. It needs 5 waves and only three waves for C is on the chart so far.
ReplyDeleteSee below at 08:48 ET. TJ.
DeleteSPY daily - just some 'market drawn' trend lines to this point. The market made the prices, I am just drawing the obvious trend lines.
ReplyDeleteMarket Drawn Trend Lines
There would be nothing wrong with an a,b,c up to here from the Aug 05 recent low.
TJ
ES/SPY(CFD) 1-hr. Yesterday's 5-min diagonal 'was' leading. There are lower lows in the after-market, and pre-market. Now, looking at the hourly timeframe, a 'larger' diagonal has formed, followed by a 38.2% retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/16jw73
So, the question becomes will it breakdown into a third wave or recycle back up for a deeper second wave (minding the wave-counting-stop). Yes, there is a 'possibility' of a larger triangle, too. So, caution and flexibility needed until measurements rule things in or out.
TJ
This diagonal is 'leading', too. The micro futures have a lower low after it, but caution, it could just be a 'b' wave. TJ.
DeleteIF you're looking at the triangle potential, it would be something like this as this wave down is now 78.6%. Not sure that will work out, and lower lows would tend to get risky for a triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VrZAHuLz/
TJ
just fyi - SPY cash 15-min: this doesn't 'look' like a triangle in cash.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mkQUxJ0r/
TJ
ES 30-min: contracting triangle formally invalidated. TJ.
DeleteSPY cash 15-min: lower intraday low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/c7RWKnN0/
TJ
Let's see if "they" buy the island reversal and lend more credence to my theory. Lol!
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: this is what is counted, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xcEppumc/
TJ
..the retrace is over 50% which should allow a 1.618 wave if it comes to it. Keep in mind that second waves sometimes become 'double zigzags' to lengthen the time, and/or deepen the correction. A Flat wave if 90% down is made, can also do the same. TJ.
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