Last night price and the 18-day SMA met by a combination of price dropping and the average rising. There is now a battle going on for control of the 18-day SMA, with FED Chair Powell speaking this morning. The ES daily chart is below.
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Touch of 18-day SMA |
On a shorter-term timeframe, the SPY cash index appears to have made a diagonal lower and then possibly three waves up to a 38% retracement. This morning's opening gap has already been closed. As far as I can tell, there are no gaps above in the cash market. The SPY 15-min intraday chart is below.
 |
| SPY Cash - 15 min - Correcting? |
So, things to watch for this morning are a) whether the blue b wave needs to be moved one trough to the right as a Flat wave itself, or b) whether a double or triple zigzag forms for the correction, with the latter being much more rare, or c) whether the structure possibly breaks down to the lows to form a larger Flat wave altogether. Hard to say let's keep an eye on it. Suffice it to say, there would be nothing wrong with a 50 - 78% retrace after a potential diagonal. The key still is whether prices respect the high or not.
Have an excellent rest of the day,
TraderJoe
SPY 15-min: higher high makes 50% retrace, now within the acceptable range for a 1.618 down wave. Can still go higher if it wishes. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: now up to 62% retrace. TJ.
DeleteVery close to that 5,600 level on futures which would weaken the "right look" of the primary ending diagonal count.
ReplyDeleteI think the AI mania tells me this is a cycle top incoming. The stars are aligning.
DeleteOr possibly higher
ReplyDeleteI don't know what that triangular looking structure is in the YM_F daily. I guess we will find out soon enough. The NDX feels like a perpetual 3rd wave since the late October low. Interesting times we now live in,historical.
ReplyDeleteMy chart of the day is Salesforce. Is there a recession coming? It looks like CRM could fill the gap,but it is above little iii so it could be finished. Lot's of bearish charts in the Dow ??????
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/x8Rc8wYs/Screenshot-191.jpg
NVDA
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/L8pFNxdT/Screenshot-192.jpg
Why use the 1 thru 13 count instead of isolating 1 thru 5? Why use w, x, y instead of a-b-c? Also 1 could be an A, and 2 could be B
DeleteI think since were hanging around the highs, it will go and sniff out the 1.618 at 5615.
ReplyDeleteYep. Price continues to solidify gains. I suspect the reversal,when it comes, will be signal.
Delete