Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Based on yesterday's hourly chart of the cash S&P500 Index, there are two excellent possibilities for today's wave: either it is part of a first wave up, after the minute (e) wave of the larger triangle on the daily chart, or it is wave x of a more complicated double zigzag for wave (e) - still in progress.
Here is a cash chart on the fifteen minute time frame.
|S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - i or x|
In order to confirm a minute (e) wave of the triangle is completed, then price would need to get above the minute (d) wave high. That has not happened yet. Yes, the downward wave sequence in the channel was clearly an a, b, c three-wave sequence. Further, there is very poor alternation in the downward wave, so I conclude it is a corrective wave sequence of some type.
Next, the upward wave sequence that began yesterday and continued today has a "no pullback" look to it. And, while it can very well be the first wave of the thrust out the triangle, the no pullback character can also just mean it is the "x" wave of a double zigzag. For the up wave to survive as the x wave, then it should not make a new high above the (d) wave, as that would invalidate a double zigzag count.
Otherwise, if the x wave survives, the (e) wave can travel more fully lower. I have no preference which occurs, remaining neutral and counting waves.
Have a very good start to your evening.