Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Update on Potential Triangle / Diagonal - 2

Nothing much has changed, except the single zigzag that was originally proposed for wave (c) of the triangle count now looks better as a double zigzag. The update of the ES 4-hr chart is below. We were expecting downward movement, and that initially occurred today. Then, as we said, we have been expecting whippy light volume trading, and the market did whip around again on light volume without breaking any of the triangle parameters.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures 4-Hr Chart

One leg of a triangle, and only one leg, is allowed to be a double zigzag (i.e. Elliott Wave Principle says one "complex" leg - double zigzag or triangle).

We are very confident that yesterday finished "five waves up", shown in brown as (i) - (v), upward. We looked over things and recognized we may have missed a very small degree triangle on July 2 which is now shown with the blue lines. That converts the upward wave to a three wave sequence, which we have labeled as .w of (c). The downward wave into July 6th is clearly a three-wave sequence, and is then the .x wave. The five wave sequence up yesterday is a of .y of (c), and the down draft on the release of the Trump Jr. emails was a perfect 78.6% retrace for the b wave of .y of (c).

And, there is still Chair Yellen's Congressional testimony to get through tomorrow and Thursday. In terms of this somewhat excruciating count, please remember that the future blue c wave of .y of (c), should it occur, can be an impulse or an ending diagonal. I have no idea which it will be, except that when it finishes, there should be no higher wave than it for quite a long time. The (e) wave, upward, of a contracting triangle should not exceed the wave (c) terminus.

Further, another upward overlap of the a wave, down, on Jun 21 is required within the next couple of days.

Today, Art Cashin said on CNBC, the drop in the market may have had quite a lot to do with the low volume - which is what we have repeatedly stated. If you ask me, the pro's know there is a triangle here. Let's see how it goes.

Have a good start to your evening.


  1. Thanks. If this ends up as a triangle would the following c wave down be the difference of (a) to (b) of the triangle, say 40 points on s&p? As a target I guess for triangles.

    1. Good question. Yes, that is the most common target. If that should be exceeded, look for Fibonacci extensions from a, and b wherever b winds up.