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| SP500 Cash Half-Hour Chart |
This count does provide alternation for wave (ii) and wave (iv) in that wave (ii) is a running flat - where the x wave goes over the high by quite a bit. Within wave (iv), neither the ((B)) wave nor the x wave goes over the high. It is the lower ((B)) and x waves that provide that alternation.
With Monday possibly seeing the "beginning of the month" inflows from mutual funds, 401k's, dividend reinvestment plans, company month-end bonuses, etc, it is possible that a (v) = (i) wave will carry over the top to end the minute ((b)) wave upward. See the two black measuring boxes which are the same height.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator is in good position to indicate a fourth wave because it is within +10% to -40% of the high for wave (iii). And, it is clear we have indicated wave ((3)) of (iii) on the peak of the EWO, with ((5)) of (iii) on a divergence.
Further, if you measure the wave in this manner, you will find wave (iii) equals almost precisely 2.618 times wave (i). Today, we were expecting a 38% retrace of wave (iii), but, while close, that did not happen. It suggests there may be some strength on Monday. The primary word of caution would be that wave (iv) has not yet taken up as much time as wave (ii). Perhaps that is symptomatic of a minute ((b)) wave up, or it may indicate there is one more down leg to be provided by the overnight on Sunday. If the correction gets deeper, however, a (v) = (i) leg will likely not cross the high, and we might have to look to (v) = 0.618 x net distance traveled by waves (0 through (iii)), the common second target.
It turns out the DOW can be counted in this same manner, but, interestingly, the DOW has not made the 90% upward mark that the other indexes have. A new high over wave (iii) would allow that. Again, the reason we can count this wave up as an impulse is the Dow made it's previous sub-waves (a) and (b) ALSO as a flat, so this is minuet (c), as an impulse, to end minute ((b)), as best I can tell. The S&P500 is in exactly the same count.
Per our charts of Crude Oil in the last two days, Crude Oil did make five waves up from the low, with good alternation, and then began undergoing some corrective waves.
Have a great start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
TJ, I thought c waves generally don't follow the 8 fold path method. Based on what you're showing...it looks like some significant low occurred at 2329 if there is a 'true impulse' from that level.
ReplyDeleteSW - C waves can be impulses or diagonals. When they are diagonals then they definitely don't follow The Eight-Fold Path Method. When they are impulses, they certainly can, but might have some abnormal characteristics - being inside a larger corrective structure.
DeleteAn anomaly in this case might be wave (iv) not making a 38.2% retracement downward. It might yet, but it might not.
DeleteThanks for sharing your analysis, Joe. I do have to once again bring up a pet peeve of mine, that I've mentioned several times before. Take a look at the rally that occurred on 4/17. You have it labeled in SPX as an impulse wave. However, if you look at the details shown on 1 minute, 5 minute, and 15 minute charts, you'll see that it's impossible to count it as an impulse wave, because it doesn't subdivide by 5. Furthermore, if you compare it to the DOW's rally that same day, you'll see that SPX and DOW moved in sync, tick for tick, for the entire wave that day. They are mirror images of each other. Yet, we know that the rally in the DOW wasn't an impulse wave, because the DOW went to lower lows on 4/19. To me, this is an example of what I have previously described, where a wave gets labeled out of convenience, even though the subdivisions of the wave clearly show the label to be incorrect. It's like the rules of EW have been completely discarded in order to make the count easier. While it's certainly possible to count the move in ES that day as an impulse wave, it's impossible to do so in SPX and DOW.
ReplyDeleteSP500 Cash - 2329 to 2344, Leading Contracting Diagonal Wave 1; and extended first wave. 2344 to 2341, short wave 2. 2341 to 2348 Wave 3, a shorter, non-extended third wave, and with five clear subwaves. 2348 to 2346, same short fourth wave, wave 4, as wave 2. 2346 to 2349 as a shorter wave 5. Nothing is out of place. Your criticism is entirely unjustified. Oh, and the market didn't 'crash' as in your prediction. It would really help you to get familiar with the different types of Elliott Waves (i.e. 'which' wave is the extended wave).
DeleteI agree the Dow did not make "five up"; it may have completed a wedge lower today - contracting ending diagonal C wave of minute((iv)).
Unlike some people I never said 'every single wave on the DOW and the S&P have to move in lock step'. So, look closely at the 2000 market high, and drop that argument with me. That is 'your' position. Not mine.
I never predicted that the market would crash. What I said was *if* the 1-2-i-ii count down from 2401 was correct, then the market was *set up* to crash. In other words, iii of 3 would have been next. The invalidation level for that count was 2361, and it was invalidated on the Sunday night gap open.
ReplyDeleteRight. So, your 1-2-i-ii down count was wrong for exactly the reason I said it wave. Wave ii was larger than wave 2 - which is not allowed by the concept of 'degree'.
DeleteThe wave ii that I described was not larger than wave 2. Wave ii was 4 days in duration. Wave 2 was 20 days in duration. Wave ii was smaller than wave 2 in points as well. No part of wave ii ever violated the 0-2 trendline. It was a valid count until the market invalidated it. No different than your diagonal count. As long as a count is valid, it's not right or wrong. It's simply valid, unless and until the market invalidates it.
DeleteI'm confused. Where is exactly are 1-2-i-ii in terms of price points. The obvious 1-2-i-ii has wave ii much larger in points.
DeleteJoe, I don't want to waste any more time on an invalidated count, but to answer your question, I had it as follows:
Delete1: 2354 on 3/9
2: 2378 on 4/5 (a running 2)
i: 2329 on 4/13 (LD)
ii: 2361 on 4/20