Channels and Alternation for Potential Primary 5th

Prices forming channels were important to R. N. Elliott and most practicing Elliotticians today would probably agree channels are important in Elliott Wave work. That being the case, the scenario below is the ‘best’ scenario for making a Primary 5th wave upward – using modern Elliott Wave theory. You will note we posted this potential scenario back on Nov. 22nd. So, today's drop should not have come as a surprise to anyone. We emphasize .. repeatedly ... this is a potential scenario. If you are interested in more discussion of it, it is posted below the chart.

One of the reasons for positing this scenario is that a triangle represents "indecision and a balance of forces" before the Fed meeting in December. Keep in mind there is lots of 'volatility' that can happen in the first half of the month, including the payroll employment report this Friday, and the Fed meeting on Dec 16th. Perhaps after all that is out of the way, the 'smart money' will feel more relaxed and start a rally into year end, and into the first of the year. But, more importantly than that, a triangle would signify that the last wave in a sequence is dead ahead. That's how triangles work when they are in a fourth wave position.

We should note that some people have posted a 'truncated fifth' wave at b of our triangle.

The problem with that scenario besides the fact the b wave of the triangle was clearly counted in real time by more than one analyst we know as a "three" and not a "five" is one key factor. If wave 5 was 'there', then wave 5 would not equal wave 1, which is one of the most common wave relationships. In fact, it would be much shorter. Further, the upward wave to that location would not be in a channel; it would be a wedge. But wedges are 'usually' diagonals, and this one would not be - again greatly lowering the odds of such a forced count.

Rather, 'at this point in time' we would expect the Elliott Wave Oscillator to weave around the zero level in a fourth wave, providing enough time for price somehow to contact and/or slightly break the lower trend line boundary before resuming higher. This could occur in the triangle OR in a double zigzag lower to the trend line. Either a triangle or a double-zigzag would provide the expected level of 'alternation' needed for a true Primary 5th wave.

Tentatively, we have 'sketched in' a lower triangle trend line from circle-a to circle-c. We will allow the lower trend line to be 're-anchored' within limits, if, and when we know that circle-c has ended.

Then, wave 5 should be "about as long" as wave 1. And it would likely fail somewhere near the median line of the parallel Elliott trend channel.

At this point in time, there are other wave counts we have to consider. We have outlined these in the posts entitled "A Hitch-Hiker's Guide to EW Galaxy", and subsequent "Galaxy Update". We have also indicated why this is necessary at this time. The uncertainty is inherent in fourth and fifth waves, and it is not perfectly clear yet which degree of fourth wave are we in. We have called this situation the "Fourth Wave Conundrum" in our YouTube Video, Critique of Elliott Wave for Trading. And it occurs at every degree of trend!

For now, the situation is we are "range bound" between the May 2015 high and the August 2015 low. We are awaiting resolution of the range. We can not 'make up' waves that 'just aren't there' for our personal reasons, and we can not 'force a count' that we truly don't see. We will update as best as possible when the wave count makes the most sense.