Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Counter-Trend Day

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; $DJUtil higher
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close -  Counter-trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The market had a down day. It is still well within the parameters of a counter trend-day. The daily chart of the S&P500 cash index is shown below for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Counter-Trend Day

After yesterday's new local higher high above the former x wave, it was not a surprise for there to be a pull-back. At the risk of cluttering the chart, above we are showing the 100% x (i) level, which would be the maximum for a minuet wave i of minute (iii) in order to maintain correct degree labeling. That level is at 2,839.91, and price is nowhere near there yet. Further, price is still hovering at the median line of the channel, closing very near it today. Price is also still above the EMA-34, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator is still green and rising further. Those are still signs of positive (although diminished) momentum.

Remember, if we are indeed in Minor 5, it will likely have momentum that is 'just awful', not the rollicking type of "wonder-to-behold" wave three that occurred in December of last year. Many stocks (like the Russell 2000, again today) will not - or are likely not - to participate in the up side.

For those interested, my recommendation for the best charting (not trading) course of action is to switch to a shorter term chart, and see if you can apply The Eight Fold Path Methodology to a wave minute (iii). That way, if price should not follow the method then we might all be able to agree that an upward impulse is not being made.

Lastly, Crude Oil had a dismal day for the bulls today, dropping more than $4 from yesterday's close at one point, and it rebounded only slightly to only $70.38 for the August contract in what is likely some type of third wave action. It will also likely be adding headwinds to the stock market progress from here.

For these reasons, the above stock market outlook is not a bullish one. It is an attempt to complete counting a fifth wave of fifth wave, of a fifth wave, and to look for the reversal point. That is not bullish. I am very, very wary of a top, but the wave structure demands an attempt to complete it. I am still only neutral and counting waves.

Have a very good start to your evening.


  1. Thanks Joe.

    I have done the homework and seems to me that the (iii) is doing, or finishing his 4 wave in S&P. In case of Nasdaq, with possible one more subdivision, is drawing a possible triangle 4 of (3) of (iii).

    The figure of the oscillator is enough clear. I used 30 min chart.

    1. In accordance with observations of Neely, a big flat very bullish. Therefore, the wave that I talk about would have that be of a lesser degree to the (iii). And the (iii) would be extended.

    2. Should be "a big flat is very bullish"

  2. Thanks Joe. Can you please vet if the alternate I am considering is valid?
    1. We started down from end of Jan 2018.
    2. Wave 1 completed in early Feb.
    3. Wave X completed early march at 2800. (double zig-zag)
    4. Wave Y: completed end of march.
    5. Wave C: is an ending diagonal that completed mid jun.

    and we have started the wave 3 next.

    The issue I am having with this alternate is that the correction for wave 3 so far is retracing all of the minor 1, and is close to invalidation. I could count the ending diagonal of C from X-Y-C as not being over and another leg pending but that seems to break other rules.

    1. There is no such valid Elliott Wave count familiar to me as X-Y-C. I don't know where you would be getting that from.