No Changes

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

No changes to the current count on the hourly, daily or weekly time frames. While the cash S&P500 Index was up quite strongly, the ES E-Mini S&P500 was up even more after the close of cash trading.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Likely in Minute (iv)

With today's gap up and follow-through, we may very well be in the minute (iv)th wave. This wave might appear as a triangle and should contact the lower trend channel boundary at some point in time.

The Elliott Wave Oscillator is now on a red histogram bar.

The clear alternate for this count would that the market topped at (iii) as a truncated fifth wave, but the odds of the alternate (and the reason why it is the alternate) are very low as downward price action does not justify it yet. In the alternate, the wave x is the (d) wave of the larger triangle, and y is the (e) wave of the larger triangle. The alternate count does not work as well with the Elliott Wave Oscillator.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Interim Top Possible, Not Proven - 2

On our Thursday July 19th post (see this LINK), we took the cautious approach that an interim top was possible, not proven. That was, in fact, the title of that post. Further, we outlined the case for an alternate wave ((4)) location far to the right of the 30-minute chart that was shown. The reader should review that post if unfamiliar. It's now more than a week later.

On the short term time-frame, the alternate is what played out. And now, with 126 candles on the hourly chart (well within the 120 - 160 recommended by The Eight Fold Path Methodology) you can see a much more proportionately formed wave. Wave (3) of ((3)) is now clearly above the upper channel boundary - again showing the point of maximum momentum of the wave, wave ((4)) has attacked the lower channel boundary, requiring the typical channel re-draw from the wave ((2)) to the new wave ((4)) location, and wave ((5)) is now both much more proportional to wave ((1)), and it is shown to fail very near the channel mid-line. Also, there is good alternation between the sharp wave ((2)), and the very sideways wave ((4)), with wave ((4)) still having that higher (B) wave. Wave ((5)) likely ended on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator. The Elliott Wave Oscillator is now both red and below zero.

These are the usual, the typical, and the most common characteristics of the Elliott Impulse wave.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Well Formed Impulse Structure

Price is now trading below the lower channel boundary again, so it must be suggested that an interim top is again possible, but not proven. To make the case stronger for a downward wave, price should trade below the wave ((4)) marker to rule out the potential that the fifth wave is extending. (Price would have to re-enter the channel for a fifth wave extension). The case for an extended fifth wave within this minute (iii) wave is made quite a bit less likely, though, by the fact that wave ((3)), above, is longer than 1.618 times its wave ((1)). So, the down side would be favored here. Still, from the high of ((5)), only three waves down clearly appear on the hourly chart. So caution and patience are still required.

But now is where we really wish to speak about fifth wave extensions - as we refer to the weekly chart below.

S&P500 Cash Index - Weekly Chart - In Minor 5

So, from our previous post on Wednesday of this week (Jul 25) we noted that, within Minor 5, wave minute (iii) had just become longer than wave minute (i). And those are the circumstances from which an extended fifth wave, in this case, minute (v) could be created. Extended fifth waves are most often created when the third wave is longer, but only marginally longer, than the first wave. And that is exactly what we have here.

So, first, we must see how and if a wave minute (iv) forms, and whether it shows alternation with the flat for minute (ii). If it does, it could well be an extended fifth wave, (v), that takes the market to new highs or to its ultimate top. Of course, to do so, a minute (iv) wave must not overlap wave minute (i). If we should see downward overlap, we will address it at that time. Right now there simply is no evidence for it.

Have a very good start to your weekend.
TraderJoe

Gap Down and Stall

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed mixed
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Lower Close -  Inside Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Today appears to be a narrow range consolidation day. It does not appear to be a big deal at the moment.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Inside Day

The Elliott Wave Oscillator is green and is again increasing, even though price was lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average perked up a bit today which is a positive.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Very much a third wave

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The S&P500 closed higher by almost +26 points today. A day like today must convince the outright bears - some of whom are readers here - that the market is, in fact, stronger than they thought. On-the-other-hand, I have been steadfastly making the case for the Minor 5th wave higher - likely an impulse wave - not exactly sure how it would occur..

The daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index is below for reference. 

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Nearing the Upper Channel Line

The significance of  today is that price crossed the (iii) = 100% x (i) price level. That means that this particular wave sequence is now not a sub-wave of wave (iii). That would be a degree violation. Today means we must very likely be in the third wave, minute (iii) itself, and likely in it's fifth wave sequence higher.

Again, trading over the upper channel line would likely completely validate that third wave momentum. We will watch to see if it occurs as we expect. On the daily chart from now on, we will only show the wave from the Minor 4 terminal as the triangle is likely cemented. It was predictive. It has done it's job.

Furthermore, since price is beyond both the 78% retrace of wave (a) of the triangle, and beyond 90% of that same wave, we are in the area where truncated waves can and do occur - if they are going to to. There is no more reason to discuss Minor 4 - with one lower probability exception: since price has attained the 90% level there is still a "chance" - just a chance - this is still a B wave higher. It would be the B wave of an even larger flat wave for a Minor 4.

There are three problems with that scenario: 1) that count would not currently agree with the weekly Elliott Wave Oscillator, 2) there is virtually no downward price evidence for such a count, and 3) it would create an even larger disagreement with the potential degree violation between Minor 4 and Intermediate (4).

No, the higher probability scenario - particularly after today - is we are in Minor 5, even if it truncates.

The trend is your friend, until it is not. Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Market Mish-Mash

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; $DJIA; $DJUtil lower
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Higher Close -  Yin-Yang Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

As we aptly titled our Thursday post "Interim Top Possible Not Proven", our cautious approach to this whippy market is in clear distinction to the outright bears who keep calling for immediate declines. First, note that the ES E-mini S&P500 futures had a clear outside reversal day up, as distinct from the S&P500 cash index. Further, the daily slow stochastic on the ES futures remains clearly embedded - a potential bit of evidence for higher prices yet.

Next, here is the S&P500 cash index 15-minute chart from the recent high - whether it is an interim top or not.

S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Not Impulsive to the Down Side Yet

Looking at the decline so far there is is not much that looks impulsive about it. After the first gap down, it's like the market "put on the brakes" to whip around more and chew up capital. So, either another diagonal is forming in the downward direction. Or perhaps, there is still the left-over of a triangle fourth sub-wave of minuet i to play out yet before the recognizable fifth wave high. Or, perhaps, this is a first wave or an 'a' wave down, three waves up of a a:3 wave, three waves down of a b:3 wave, and the market has started on or completed five waves up of a c:5 wave for a flat second wave or 'b' wave.

It is clear with the market in this position, you are clear to "pick your poison". You have roughly a 1 in 4 chance of getting it correct based on wave counting skills alone, or a 50% chance based on direction (up or down) alone.

Along with The Fourth Wave Conundrum that happens at every degree of trend, this is another reason why I remain neutral and am attempting to count waves to a countable top.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Still in Up Channel

Below is the weekly chart of the S&P500 Cash Index. As the wave ruler (lower right) shows, there are now 127 weekly bars on the chart - well within the establish parameters of The Eight Fold Path Method of between 120 - 160 candles on the chart for "the wave of interest".

S&P500 Cash Index - Weekly - The Eight Fold Path Method

During this time, the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) has had two close approaches to the zero line. The first in November 2016 signalling wave Minor 2, and the second, in May, 2018 signalling the end of the Minor wave 4 triangle. As we noted before, we found it amazing (and not surprising) that the Minor 4 triangle took up more time than the Minor 2 zigzag.

The wave count shown is the only one we could find that meets with "degree labeling requirements". This is the requirement that so-called smaller degree waves must, in fact, be smaller than their larger degree counterparts. This essential idea in wave theory is one reason why, once proposed, this count has not had to change over the many weeks.

Concomitant with this idea, we also proposed that a triangle would be likely for Minor 4, to shorten it's length - as measured to wave (e) - so that it would not be longer in price points than Intermediate (4) which was from May 2015 to February 2016. And - whether some services and sites wish to admit it or not - the triangle can clearly be seen, in full agreement with the Elliott Wave Oscillator. Yet, they did not predict the triangle. We did.

On this chart, we have sketched in the median line of the weekly price channel (dotted), and you will note that there is some resistance to price movement there. In fact, price change on the week is quite small.

We have said for weeks now that we expect Minor 5 to have absolutely horrible momentum. So far, in terms of volume it is living up to that expectation. Further, we said that pull-backs can now be expected - probably for minuet ii within minute (iii) of Minor 5. The pullback can be quite substantial but should not violate the lower daily up trend channel line shown on the daily chart below.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Minuet i of Minute (iii) Possibly Completed

Now that potential wave minuet i has made a higher high than the x wave of the minute (ii) flat, we have removed the tentative status of the up channel. Prices should now remain in the channel or exceed the channel to the upside - probably in minuet iii of minute (iii) which would be predicted to have stronger momentum. As it stands now - and as the Fibonacci ruler shows - minuet i is shorter in length than minute (i) also reflecting proper degree labeling.

So now we are at the point of monitoring for the minuet wave ii pull-back which should be more than 38%, but stay within the channel if minute wave (iii) is to be the extended wave in the sequence. The wave can go as deep as 62 - 78% of minuet i, but it can be shallower. First, confirmation is needed that minuet i is over. That would probably occur by price filling the gap shown as the red circle on the above chart.

Have a very good start to your weekend.
TraderJoe

Interim Top Possible Not Proven

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; $RUT, $Trans; $DJUtil higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Yin-Yang Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

I noted in yesterday's comments section, in response to keen observations by 'Birthday Bill' .. if you will.. that it was possible to see an ending contracting diagonal that would agree with the Elliott Wave Oscillator on the S&P500 30-minute cash chart. Here is that ending diagonal, at the end of the corresponding impulse wave count, as updated with today's price movement.

S&P500 Cash Index - 30 Minute - Potential Ending Diagonal

The up wave did form a parallel - just barely - and prices are now below the parallel so that if wave ((4)) formed as a "running flat" to alternate with the sharp wave ((2)), then the count would make sense as an impulse with good alternation in agreement with the Elliott Wave Oscillator.

However, given the funky nature of fourth waves and the inevitable Fourth Wave Conundrum, we must allow that the fourth wave could still be in progress, and the potential diagonal is only the true (B) wave of the flat. In that case wave ((3)) would have ended on 13 July. The arrow shows the ALTERNATE wave ((4)) still continuing. It doesn't have to continue, but it could.

If a true diagonal was made, it only needs to trade below the current wave ((4)) in less time than it took the diagonal to be built. If the time factor gets stretched way out, then it would more indicate the alternate. With the wave ((5)) price below the mid-line of the channel, it seemed to say that it was "running out of gas". That is now further indicated by price being below the channel.

So.. watch things carefully. I am remaining patient, open and flexible as the count proceeds. It would seem odd to have a "running fourth wave" which usually indicates strength as the next to the last wave in the entire bull market. So, more upward movement is eventually expected. There just may be a 62% retrace prior to the next up move, however. So, let's take this step by step and see with what wave sequences the market informs us.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Continued Upside

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; $NDX, $DJUtil lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

No changes to the current count. The market, as measured by the S&P500 Cash Index made what looks like slowing upward progress today, although another higher high day was posted. As it nears that 2,839 level we mentioned in several posts, it will likely meet a bit of resistance while trying to decide if minute (iii) will be the extended wave in the sequence. I'll have more to say about that later. For now, here is the daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Still Likely in Minute (iii)

Price still continues above the median line of the channel, and still closes above it. That remains a positive sign for the trend of the market, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator continues with green histogram bars - after only a brief red bar - and that remains a positive sign for the momentum of the market.

Because the daily ES price is nearing it's upper daily Bollinger Band at 2,837, backing-and-filling can be expected at any time.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Cash Breaks Minute (b)

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; $RUT lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The market as measured by the S&P500 cash index had another higher high day, and closed higher. It is still trading above the mid-line of the channel. Below is the daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Break Higher of Minute (b)

Price got high enough today to break the minute (b) wave of the Minor 4 triangle. As long as price is making higher high days, we will continue to count upward. The Elliott Wave Oscillator remains green, and continues to make upward progress. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average filled a downward gap from June 19 today, but it still has considerable ground to make up.

Various other web-sites are trying anything they can to get in synch with this count. One has a switched from their full-on downward count, to the a message of "the triangle is the best option now". Another site claims they saw a "Leading Diagonal" from the waves since April 1st - but they are only reporting it now in July!. Folks, just like there was no ending diagonal there - as so many were claiming - there is also no leading diagonal there. Both of those counts break specific Elliott Wave rules. They are thinly veiled attempts to get in synch with the count above and reverse engineer a better answer.

Once again, even while the evidence suggests to us that prices are climbing, we are not bullish. We are simply trying to match the evidence with a fifth wave count - an ending type count. And that simply can not be bullish. It is more like looking for the end of a diving board. Prices may or will pop or hop around. We remain neutral and are counting waves as best we can - following the specific rules of wave theory, and using an objective, easy-to-understand method: The Eight Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse.

With the cash price closer than ever to the 2,839 level, pull-backs can occur at any time. Backing-and-filling is expected. At this time, the advance-decline line may only just be beginning to buckle, but the speculation indexes are not yet where they typically are for a significant decline. Pull-backs, yes. Significant decline? The evidence says not quite yet. But we are "on-watch" for it, and hope to pay attention if it occurs. Meanwhile price evidence continues to point to the upside rather than the downside.

So for now, one can only be patient, calm and flexible as we watch to see if a new all-time high should be made.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Up Trend Resumes

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

After yesterday's some what depressive day, today was 'almost' a manic day upward. Manic-depressive; an apt description of this market, and of 'triangle-type' markets in general. After the gap-up open, the S&P500 cash index continued to rise and finished with a gain of about 24 points. Here is the daily chart again for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Gap Up Continuation Day

In the chart, you can see that price bounced off the mid-line of the channel, and made another higher high over the prior x wave. It has not, yet, exceeded the minute (b) wave higher of the triangle. Continuing to trade over the median line of the channel remains a positive development for this index. Other indexes, particularly the Dow, have not fared quite as well.

As can be seen on the chart, the Elliott Wave Oscillator still has green histogram bars, and the level is increasing in a further indication of positive momentum. In short, not much has changed.

Except it sure is getting hot outside. Stay cool, and ...
Have a nice start to your evenning.
TraderJoe

Counter-Trend Day

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; $DJUtil higher
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close -  Counter-trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The market had a down day. It is still well within the parameters of a counter trend-day. The daily chart of the S&P500 cash index is shown below for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Counter-Trend Day

After yesterday's new local higher high above the former x wave, it was not a surprise for there to be a pull-back. At the risk of cluttering the chart, above we are showing the 100% x (i) level, which would be the maximum for a minuet wave i of minute (iii) in order to maintain correct degree labeling. That level is at 2,839.91, and price is nowhere near there yet. Further, price is still hovering at the median line of the channel, closing very near it today. Price is also still above the EMA-34, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator is still green and rising further. Those are still signs of positive (although diminished) momentum.

Remember, if we are indeed in Minor 5, it will likely have momentum that is 'just awful', not the rollicking type of "wonder-to-behold" wave three that occurred in December of last year. Many stocks (like the Russell 2000, again today) will not - or are likely not - to participate in the up side.

For those interested, my recommendation for the best charting (not trading) course of action is to switch to a shorter term chart, and see if you can apply The Eight Fold Path Methodology to a wave minute (iii). That way, if price should not follow the method then we might all be able to agree that an upward impulse is not being made.

Lastly, Crude Oil had a dismal day for the bulls today, dropping more than $4 from yesterday's close at one point, and it rebounded only slightly to only $70.38 for the August contract in what is likely some type of third wave action. It will also likely be adding headwinds to the stock market progress from here.

For these reasons, the above stock market outlook is not a bullish one. It is an attempt to complete counting a fifth wave of fifth wave, of a fifth wave, and to look for the reversal point. That is not bullish. I am very, very wary of a top, but the wave structure demands an attempt to complete it. I am still only neutral and counting waves.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Gap Up and Higher Local High

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; $Trans, $RUT lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

In continued follow-through to yesterday's up move, the market, as measured by the S&P500 gapped up and made a higher high than the previous x wave of wave minute (ii). The Daily chart of the S&P500 cash index appears below for your reference. As we warned, not every stock is following in suit, and the Russell 2000, a previous upward leader, had a down day today. The Dow is still struggling to make new highs, and volume was quite low today with only ~3.0 bil shares traded on the NYSE.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - New local high over prior x wave

By making a higher high today, a lot of different downward counts were technically violated including some of those from major Elliott wave services. Still, while price is over the median line of the channel, it would be best to see it exceed the prior minute (b) wave of the triangle for continued upward movement in Minor 5. That would occur above 2,802.The Elliott Wave Oscillator is green, still rising, and is now currently above the zero line.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

 

Gap Up and Higher Close

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; $DJUtil, lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Stocks opened the week with a gap up and traded higher. The continued daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index is below for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Gap Up

Today's prices both traded above the mid-line of the channel, and closed above it, as well. There does not appear to be anything out of the ordinary that would rule out being in minute (iii) of Minor 5, as was written about over the weekend. Trading over the prior 'x' wave, and then the (b) wave at 2,802 would likely confirm it.

The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is green, rising, and continued to make progress.

Price had a good start to the week. I hope you have, as well.
TraderJoe

Holiday Hi!

Commensurate with the holiday, stocks ended the week with a bit of a sparkler. We had called for a likely flat wave for wave minute (ii), and it looks like we got one. Here is the daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - New Channel

Since exiting the smaller triangle at minute (e), which ended wave Minor 4, the cash index has now formed a new tentative channel upward. On Friday, price closed the downward gap shown in black circle on the price chart.  But there are many open gaps - only some of which are shown - denoted by the red circles.

For the EW purists, the correction is likely a 'complex flat' which is composed of a flat-x-zigzag, with the waves in the week prior the holiday as a zigzag, and that flat technically having ended with the diagonal we showed in prior posts. The zigzag was needed to extend price lower so that minute (ii) would overlap downward with minute (i) within Minor 5.

Price is currently trading very near the (dotted) median line of the tentative channel. Trading above, and closing above, the median line would be a positive. Trading below the lower green channel or closing below it would be a warning.

It looks like the Elliott Wave Oscillator made a second wave signature, with a slightly lower low than Minor 4, and it is now green and rising. Even though things are working out well, it is still time to be flexible, patient and cautious - as a very significant risk is other market sectors (e.g. Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100) might not hold up as well.

As we warned last weekend, Crude Oil did indeed upwardly overlap the $75.00 level. So we are glad we provided a preview of what one might expect.

Have a very good weekend!
TraderJoe

What IF in CL

With Crude Oil about 50 cents away from a potential critical overlap, it seems like quite an omission for a major Elliott Wave service to not address in their monthly report, "What happens IF Crude Oil should, in fact, overlap?"

First, let's start with the potential overlap, and the problem it would present. It seems fitting to present this chart in patriotic red, white & blue.

CL Futures - Monthly - Potential Overlap

The problem such an overlap would present is that it would no longer be possible to count the waves down from the 2011 low to the present as an impulse wave. The critical level is $74.95, and it hasn't quite happened yet.

But, IF the overlap does happen, and, if CL is to be seen in a zigzag downward then there are four good possibilities.

1.  The zigzag completed as Primary ((W))-((X))-((Y)) at the 2016 low.
2.  A running triangle Primary ((B)) wave is forming.
3. A flat Primary ((B)) wave is forming.
4. A primary ((C)) wave is still forming as an Ending Diagonal.

Of these, because of the choppy nature of the current up turn, the one that seems most fitting to outline more closely is the Ending Diagonal for a Primary ((C)) wave lower, as follows.

CL Futures - Monthly - Potential Ending Diagonal for Primary ((C))

This chart would diagram a contracting ending diagonal for the Primary ((C)) wave of the zigzag following the waterfall Primary ((A)) wave that occurred in 2009.  The 2011 low would be the A wave of a zigzag lower for Intermediate Wave (1) of the Primary ((C)) wave diagonal. The clearest five-wave pattern from the 2013 high to the 2015 low would be the C wave of the zigzag for the Intermediate (1) wave. A diagonal would be allowed because Intermediate (1) did make a lower low over it's Primary ((A)) wave, showing it's motive wave character,

The 2016 low to the the 2018 high (continuing) would be the Intermediate wave (2) of the diagonal. And the chart predicts a reversal down in Intermediate (3) of Primary ((C)), which would then be required to make another marginal lower low in prices. This to be followed by Intermediate (4) higher, and Intermediate (5) lower. While Intermediate (5) should make a lower low, if it is the last wave in an ending diagonal, it may truncate slightly.

We warn at the outset, that there is no clear sign of downward reversal yet, and before considering this as anything more than a potential pattern, a sign of that reversal should be seen first on no less than a weekly chart.

If the pattern ended at the 2015 low, or if the Primary ((B)) wave does go on to make a flat, then new highs would be expected above $118. The Ending Diagonal is outlined because it seems to fit with the current choppy three-wave upward price movement, and it is apt that a SuperCycle might end with such a large diagonal. A diagonal would also provide excellent alternation for the impulsive Primary ((A)) wave down in 2009.

The Primary ((B)) wave triangle would be a "running triangle" because of the lower low. But that would seem to be too bearish a pattern for the allowed price movement lower (can't go below $0). So, the diagonal seems to fit better than the triangle.

And, while nothing is for certain we take a view based on the waves we can currently see. And, while the overlap hasn't happened yet, the upward wave as a fourth wave is getting very non-proportional to it's second wave. And that's what causes us to look ahead.

I too will take some time off over this summer holiday, so enjoy it to the fullest possible.
Have a great rest of the weekend & a great week.
TraderJoe

P.S. There were two other posts this weekend, in case you missed them.