Three-Ways (2)

The front month futures currently show the clearest, countable pattern in the four-hour time frame. As we said earlier the initial pattern is a 3-3-5 Flat pattern, as below.

ES Sep Futures - 4 Hr - Flat Pattern

This makes the low on the 19th either a minute-ⓐ or a minute-ⓦ wave. These down waves - and their hesitation and halting nature - likely represent the "battle for the 18-day average" back on the daily chart.

The current up wave seems unresolved currently because a slightly larger parallel can still be intact. The question is how high a minute-ⓑ or minute-ⓧ wave would go. For example, Friday's c wave stopped almost precisely at the level of the prior ii wave, up, of (c), down. There is a non-zero probability that the up wave is over, and, if so, because it did not reach the 90% level it would be the minute-ⓧ wave, as in the pattern known as a Flat-x-zigzag. The zigzag extends the wave lower. Otherwise, if the 90% or better level is reached, the multiple-flat (double-three or triple-three) pattern might be in play.

For those considering the structures shown, we note that the (c) wave is longer-in-time than the (a) wave down. This again means that the two waves should be of the same degree or else the (c) wave down would be of one-higher degree. For the moment, we see them as the same degree as their price extents are very, very similar.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

Three-Ways

You've heard of "Freeways", right? Where traffic is supposed to zoom along like I-15 to Las Vegas, right? Not like the "405" that crawls you down to a crunch stop on the way from LA to San Diego, right? Well, today's market, so far, in front of the Federal Reserve announcement, dot-plots, and press conference is more like the latter, but what I have termed temporarily "Three-Ways".

ES/SPY/CFD - 2 Hr - Three-wave Sequences Only

As of this morning anyways, the two-hourly ES/SPY/CFD has only three-wave sequences. And last night's up wave was longer than the immediately prior b wave. Further, note the downward c wave stopped around that 78.6% level which could indicate a triangle.

So, the bottom line is that highs or lows need to be broken to get out of this mess. A triangle is possible, overall. A downward diagonal is possible for the most recent wave. Fittingly, the front-month ES contract is only down to the 18-day SMA as of last night with the daily slow stochastic in over-bought condition only (not embedded) - and this is where it often goes in front of major announcements.

ES Sep Futures - Daily - Bounce from 18-day SMA

So, be careful as whippy conditions could prevail. Lots of valid Elliott Wave structures are valid from here, so it is more a case now of ruling out what becomes not possible - or less possible - based on price lengths made today. On the first 2-hr chart, one might especially watch the 78.6% upward level in the triangle eventuality, or the low of the c wave in the downward diagonal eventuality.

Have an excellent rest of the day.

TraderJoe

Cash to 90%+

After three-waves down we noted over the weekend, the SPY cash index went to the 90% level, plus some, as below. The current front month (June) ES contract did also. The roll-over contract went to the level of 1.236 times the down wave.

The ES price is still over the 18-day SMA. The bulls are still in control. That being the case, a (b) wave of a Flat, Expanding Flat, running Flat or of some of the kinds of triangles is still possible, but no conclusions are reached as of this time.

Have an excellent rest of the evening.

TraderJoe

The Extended First Wave Count to Minor A - 3

On the daily chart not too much has changed with the recent hostilities. In terms of the wave count it remains the same, as below. Confidence has increased slightly because, over the last couple of days, a longer wave down has been made than the (e) wave of the triangle, and it traded below that level, as well. Since, triangles often precede the last move in a sequence, there is some greater level of confidence that a top is in place temporarily on the ES daily chart, below.

ES Futures - Daily - Minor A

This also means that the break of the wave ((ii))-to-((iv)) trend line (circle-ii to circle-iv) occurred in less time than wave ((v)), circle-v, took to build. Neely adherents will recognize this as the first step in the confirmation process. Trading below the (a) wave, and possibly filling the higher of the two open gaps would be a good second step.

We say - and we mean - confidence precisely because we are always just dealing with probabilities and odds. For example - at present - we only can legitimately count three-waves-down, so far, on the hourly chart shown below.

ES Futures - Hourly - Three Waves Down

Notice the very precise Fibonacci relationships where - at the b wave high - wave Ⓒ = 2.618 x Ⓐ, and at the bottom wave c = 1.618 x a. Again, this just reinforces three-waves-down in the futures. Then, for the up wave, notice that it is longer in price than the b wave, up. Therefore, it is either of the same degree or one higher degree. At present, we are showing it as one higher degree. However, IF it is of the same degree, then it is possible a triangle is forming (we'll deal with than one if Friday's low is not exceeded lower).

Then, notice the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO) is really only showing a significant trough, a hump above the zero line, and another lower significant trough. So, this looks like only a three-down, with a flat for the b wave.

This does not mean it can't start a diagonal lower, but lower lows are needed to prove that case. And if a diagonal forms, then the five minuette waves down, (i) through (v), would form minute ⓐ wave down, because it would take three minute waves, ⓐ-ⓑ-ⓒ to form the minimum Minor B wave down.

The bottom line is more length in the Minor B wave is probably still necessary. Readers of this blog should also plot the daily Bollinger Bands with the 18-day SMA and daily slow stochastic to see that all we have been doing is "fighting the battle at the 'line-in-the-sand'." A close below that 18-day SMA is needed to be a more convincing onset to the correction. So, try not to rush the counts. There are only three-waves-down, so far. The bulls are technically still in control until they are not. Legitimately, the three-waves-down means travel over the top is still possible until / unless Friday's low is exceeded lower.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

The Extended First Wave Count to Minor A - 2

The lack of progress on the Minor B wave downward despite overlap, after overlap, after overlap suggests that perhaps Minor A is still underway with a triangle for minute ((iv)), circle-iv, on the ES daily chart, below.

The remainder of the counting process and conclusions remains the same. Further, we do not know that upward movement is over.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe

The Extended First Wave Count to Minor A

The concept of this chart has not changed since it was originally published on May 29 at this LINK. It is still The Extended First Wave Count to Minor A. It is now out to 130 candles, and it is still the count that 'best' meets the rules and guidelines of the wave principle, and which follows The Eight-Fold-Path Method for Counting an Impulse Wave. The ES 8-hr chart is below. Please remember that double parenthesis, i.e. (( )) is the same in text as a circle, for minute waves. Thus, in text ((i)) = ⓘ and so forth. With that in mind we have added some recent details.

In the extended first wave count, then, wave ((v)) < ((iii)) < ((i)). Notice wave ((iv)) is actually somewhat longer in price than wave ((ii)) but does not overlap wave ((i)). This is likely a key that the count is correct because the two waves, ((ii)) and ((iv)), should be of the same degree - or else ((iv)) is of one higher degree, since it is longer. My contention is that they are of the same degree. Further, note that all of wave ((iii)) is above a 0 - ((ii)) trend line. And wave ((ii)) is much less than 38% which typically indicates an extended first wave.

We are now likely in the Minor B wave, and in the (b)-3 wave of a B wave at that. So, wave counting here is ugly. That said, sometime soon the first (c) wave lower should occur.

Also, the leading contracting diagonal for wave minute ⓘ should mean that the fifth wave of A, minute ((v)), circle-v, should not be a contracting diagonal by the Principle of Alternation.

If/when the (c) wave lower gets underway it certainly could be an impulse, but it could also be one of two types of diagonals (contracting or expanding), depending on how slow or fast the algorithms want to go. Still some larger down movement should occur to better signal the onset of the Minor B wave.

This is the second post since Friday. Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

Doji & the Seven-Gaps

Like the title of a bad alt Disney movie, today's SPY contract gapped up starting way before the tepid Payroll Report. We warned we could see some vicious retracement and used the hourly EMA-34 as a marker, but price far exceeded that level and made a new local higher high which is still in an overlapping wedge shape. Price then waffled around lower, making a double-zigzag lower only before heading up near the open to create the Doji bar. Today's gap up created fully the seventh unfilled gap upward, as the daily SPY chart, below, shows.

While the higher prices overall are great for investors, currently, the numerous gaps on the chart, which is not a first, continues to make wave counting a bit more difficult. For the interim, yes, there is an overlapping wedge shape near the high. We pointed out several of those overlaps in yesterday's post. And today added more overlaps to that list. It can still be part of the (b) wave higher as the price difference overall is minimal.

But our most prescient concern is what happens when the algorithms reverse and go "gap hunting" to the downside? At some point that is still likely. Let's just hope they don't go for all seven at once.

Notice 1) price has pulled away from the upper parallel and has made a turn to the right, which is a slowing of momentum, 2) there is still MACD divergence, 3) and also have a gander at green volume here. We have drawn in just one Fib line. Today was the 1.272 from the initial leg of this mess, and the close was almost dead on it.

There are no certainties here, but the wave count feels very much like B wave territory. I don't think the retrace levels are deep enough to consider diagonals.

So, I did get the call to a (c) wave of a larger B wave incorrect for the day. No doubt about that. And, even still, as frequent readers of this blog know a single-candle pattern - such as a doji is insufficent to call a turn. Much better to have a significant closing lower candle. So, Monday could even trade up again, and reverse, or wait until Tuesday to reverse.

What I just really shake my head at as the chart clearly shows how much risk there is up here, and the complacency is amazing to me. Pick-your-gap fill, right?

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Bouncing Around in a "B" wave

Our count presupposes that five-waves-up to a Minor A wave, up, has been made and is in the rear-view mirror as shown below on the left in the ES hourly chart. We are now bouncing around in the Minor B wave as given by today's false break-out higher and overlap lower.

So, we suppose that a (c) wave lower is underway, and this may dovetail with the reaction to the Payroll Employment Report tomorrow. Since sharply higher prices are still possible, say to the EMA-34 or so, provided we do not go over today's cash high, it behooves one to use the utmost caution reading these waves.

As we look at the daily chart below. We see that price did close over the 18-day SMA, and so the daily bias is still up. Price did rise to tag the upper daily Bollinger Band and then fell off in an outside-day-down. And both cash and futures technically made their highs on the same 'day' - just not the same hour of the day.

Price then went down near the 18-day SMA and bounced a bit. It is possible that if we make a (c) wave down that it is only "one leg" of a correction - like minute ⓦ of a complex ⓦ-ⓧ-ⓨ which could be something like a Flat-x-zigzag to help give the correction some length. Remember, "B" waves can be "any threes". And maybe on the daily chart such a correction would help form a better daily parallel.

This is one of the myriad possibilities for a B wave. A 'multiple Flat' would surely be another. Still, we are looking for a count that provides some downward length - and perhaps overlap - to differentiate it from other counts. So, we'll stay loose and flexible. The next milestone would actually be a close below the 18-day SMA to suggest that the daily bias has changed. The slow stochastic tonight is only around 77, and if stays below 80, it might indicate that price will again try to attack the 18-day SMA.

Only time will tell. For now, there are overlaps galore, and we are following the 'rules' as best we can. 

Have an excellent rest of the evening.

TraderJoe

Three & three ?

On the SPY 15-min timeframe, we do not know that the up wave is over even though it shows signs of tiring. But, so far, the best count is :3, down, and :3, up, to now more than 90% of the prior cash high. As always this is a sign of a potential "b" wave of a Flat, or expanded flat, or the next impulse wave up. See the chart below.

SPY Cash - 15 Min - 3-3- ?

Since tomorrow is Tuesday, one might ask, "if today was an up Monday, will tomorrow see a turn on Tuesday"?. We don't know for sure, but the chart above suggests such a thing is possible. Note the cash high corresponds to the futures limit we posted in yesterday's chart.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Critical Level

Since Thursday's high in the ES futures, there is about a 65:35% chance that the down movement is only a "three", or an a,b,c lower on the ES 30-min chart, as below.

The length of the b wave being much longer-in-time than entire length of the a wave down seems to mean the two legs should be of the same degree, rather than be an internal fourth wave. Certainly, we counted the c wave down as five-waves-down that started with an expanding diagonal on Friday.

Further, on Friday, we popped the parallel to the upside in what we counted as five-waves-up followed by a flat wave.

That would seem to make Thursday's cash high a critical marker for the future. If the high of the futures equivalent, the bar that opened at 09:30 ET on Thursday, at 5,956.25 is exceeded higher, it would tend to invalidate any such 1-2 down in the cash market. So, we think if that occurs, some kind of flat or expanded flat might be forming for the Minor B wave lower.

If that level is not exceeded, then it is possible we are going lower by diagonal or multiple zigzags, so this is where patience is really necessary, and we will have to watch and count locally as best we can.

The daily chart, too, looks like yin-yang candles, and this not a very impulsive start if this is the Minor B wave. However, while price is still above the 18-day SMA, the daily slow stochastic is still in over-bought territory and the suggestion is new money would not immediately begin chasing the move.

Over the weekend there was news of possibly taking steel tariffs up to 50%, for which the EU said it might retaliate if that occurs. Monday June 2 is the first trading day of the new month and the inflows from passive investment sources may occur. We shall see.

For now, have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

Shock and Awww!

Readers of this blog know we were looking for a way to complete five-waves-up to a Minor A wave on the ES 4-Hr chart. With last night's shocking higher high on Nvidia's earnings and on word of tariffs being partially blocked, we got the needed higher high. By mid-morning though all of those gains were given up in the futures and then some - creating an outside range day down, as below on the ES daily chart. Aw.

The non-overlapping count is one of the few ways I can find both to follow degree labeling definitions along with the other rules of wave counting.

Note that the daily slow stochastic is not embedded, and it is possible the Minor B wave, if underway, will try to attack the combination of the 18-day and 100-day SMA's and possibly the lower daily Bollinger Band as an initial target.

The other news is that if you thought counting the Minor A wave, up, was beyond nuts, then counting the Minor B wave could be equally or more difficult, as it can be "any three" including a contracting triangle, single, double or triple zigzag, a Flat (including running flat, or expanded flat), and it could turn out to be a dreaded expanding triangle, too. Further, various legs could be composed of contracting or expanding diagonals that will be difficult to read.

We'll do our best, but as you can see last night, the news can change things in-a-hurry so be cautious and prudent whether big news is scheduled - like the employment report - or it is a story that surprises.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Inn & Out

Nvidia earnings are now "in" the market, and the ES 1 hr futures are "out." Throw the baby out with the bathwater. They are a mess - dreadful and with overlap. And we just wanted to count "five-up". So, here's the deal: we showed you the potential count several times on the SPY cash 10-min in the comments for the prior post. Here is that one-hour futures chart with all its issues.

We can clearly count three waves up, with a running flat second wave, as either i, ii, iii or the alternate of red a, b, c as shown below price and above the MACD. The dashed 0 - ii trend line is shown, and it was broken today. So, we are likely in wave iv but with a slight intraday overlap. One way around the overlap is if price makes a triangle and the ⓔ wave does not overlap. Barring that, we could either make a contracting diagonal with the up waves as red (i), (ii) as shown, or if that does not occur, perhaps we make a fifth wave and have to accept the slight overlap. So, we have to see how that turns out.

Note there is some prospect for sloppy weekend trade as some people are still on vacation. Friday could be a window-dressing day as the last day of the month. And then, Monday June 2 might see the typical 'first-of-month' inflows perhaps with a pop out of the triangle.

Time will tell. The MACD is currently hugging the hourly zero line and looks to be in a fourth wave position, or position for a whippy triangle around zero, but that is only one input to the chart. Touching the lower parallel was another, and it will be interesting to see if we get the repeated trend line breaks that triangles often bring.

Could the analysis be off? It could. If things really break down below today's low, then one might look for a much deeper wave (ii) of the contracting diagonal.

In any event, wave iii / c up is shorter than wave i / a, up and that tells quite a bit. Wave v should be shorter than iii if it occurs that way.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

To B or Not to Be

Readers of this blog know from earlier posts that we are trying to resolve two different levels of upwards channels. By resolve I mean either make a new high for the channel move or breakdown below the lower channel boundary, back-test that line, and/or fail. The prior hourly channel has been broken downward, with a five-wave move below that channel line - which is essentially the mid-line of the larger channel, shown. Now, as can be seen from the ES 4-Hr chart, below, this larger channel still needs resolution in order to conclude that a Minor B wave, lower, is actually underway.

As many readers know, and have experienced by now, a five-wave move down can - many, many, times - be only the 'c' wave of a larger fourth wave flat.

So, in the ES chart above, we must play the game, at least for a while, of waiting to see whether price goes over the prior high again, or not. Certainly, the MACD could be interpreted this way on this time scale. So, we must diligently watch local price action and try to sort out the impulses from the corrections. If price fails to go over the high again, it could mean a couple of things - one more dire than the other but we'll cover that in subsequent posts. For now, the news bots have the advantage as they look to create a gap up open for Tuesday. And we'll be interested to see whether this persists.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend, and a loud shout-out of 'thanks' to any veterans out there for helping or having helped to keep us secure.

TraderJoe

Apple Scruffs

With apologies to the Harrison title, the President is calling a U.S. company a rotten Apple and imposing tariffs on its products. The result to the ES 1-Hr futures looks to have made a fifth wave down this morning, adding considerable price length to the drop.

And the patience paid off. We'll look at the larger picture on the weekend.

TJ

Debt Forgiven ?

The Moody's downgrade created some overnight volatility, which was reversed or erased by a slightly higher close today. Was the debt erased? Heck no. This is just part of the market's ongoing efforts to convince neophytes that "nothing matters". Eventually, that won't be true. For our part today's minor higher high in the ES 4-hr chart looks to have done nothing but created an extension in the fourth sub-minuette wave, iv, with better alternation in the chart below - and with today as part or most of v.

The minor new high created a larger divergence with the MACD, as is shown by the brown dotted line. But we maintain this larger channel has not been filled out to the downside. And this may yet happen with the MACD heading back towards the zero line. So, we'll see after a volatile up Monday whether there will be a turn on Tuesday.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Dow - Follow Up

The two-weekly chart of the Dow futures, below, has just a few things new on it, on the continued count of a contracting diagonal at log scale shown in several prior posts. First, it is the clear fact that Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO) with 135 candles on the chart, dipped below zero for the overlapping fourth wave, Intermediate (4).

Second is the fact that there appears to be a Minor A wave up, now clearly on the chart - with the clear alternate noted in red below the price. One might be curious how this Minor A wave up could possibly be counted. Probably my count is not like yours, but it is below.

Even though the Minor A wave structure looks simple enough on the 2-weekly time scale (first chart), to count any five-wave up wave it simply must be counted as an expanding diagonal per the second chart. That is because without the diagonal one runs into degree-definition violations at every turn. But with the diagonal, all three up swings can be of the same degree. And, still, this pattern is supposed to be among the rarest patterns, but here it is in front of your eyes.

Again, the clear alternate for this wave has to be Minor B of (4) with C down to follow, and the second chart would be counted as ⓦ-ⓧ-ⓨ as a B wave in that case. The alternate just means the EWO and price can go a little lower in (4) before the fifth wave begins. That is certainly permitted by the method, and it might allow overlap in the S&P500 so we need to be watchful for it.

In either case, we are expecting downward movement which may have started on Friday. Again, there is no amount of downward movement that will surprise me.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

Trying to Resolve - 2

After the cash close Moody's downgraded U.S. debt (story at LINK here) one notch. If news matters, let's see the reaction Monday. The market for its part made a higher daily high into the cash close. It is still above the 18-day SMA and the slow stochastic is still embedded. In the comments we said that the inner of the two channels in the ES 4-hr chart below has been resolved with higher highs (like a fifth wave of some degree).

The last four-hour candle today was a red spinning top (abbreviated S.T. on the chart) and is hanging right on the lower parallel of the inner channel. Red spinning tops are slightly weaker than green spinning tops. And we have often noted such single-candle patterns required confirmation with a significant lower closing candle. That confirmation is not on the board yet and is not on the board until it is on the board. Still, we have noted two significant levels of overlap should they occur. Further if the channel doesn't hold (lower channel line breaks impulsively lower, is back-tested, and the back-test fails) then it would likely be of longer-term importance.

At the moment we also will note that today's higher high occurred on a lower MACD - so a divergence - and that, too, is just a warning sign until it isn't.

As a reminder of the intraday wave-counting screen, the ES 30-min chart is below. One will note that prices were generally rising until about 8 AM, but they simply could not tag the upper band. That is generally a sign of weakness. Then, prices fell off in an expanding diagonal that we showed in real-time and which concluded around 10:30 am. Like all diagonals, it is very difficult to tell if they are ending diagonals (more common) or leading diagonals (less common). So, all we could say was, "watch the high".

Price did reverse, piercing the intraday 18-per SMA, in according with the daily bias still being up, and an apparent fifth wave was made. So, the diagonal was likely the "c" wave of an overnight Flat wave and likely a fourth wave flat. On the Moody's downgrade the downward movement made a longer wave in price than the prior down wave (as shown by the Fibonacci ruler), and this likely suggests that a continuing contracting diagonal is not being formed from these waves. Price then closed below the intraday 18-period, and the intraday slow stochastic closed below the 79 level. And while a warning, it now again fights with the bias of the daily chart until it doesn't. Keep an eye on those down (red) fractals.

Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend,

TraderJoe

Trying to Resolve

On the daily ES chart, we showed a larger parallel which is still pending resolution. Below on the ES 4-Hr chart are two smaller parallels that are also pending resolution.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Parallels Pending Resolution

We showed in the comments today - using the SPY 15-min proxy - how the smaller (dashed) channel can be making a fourth wave according to the Elliott Wave Oscillator. Tonight, the futures are traveling downward a bit more, but nothing is resolved yet. Bear in mind that neither of these parallels has to hold if this is a corrective wave. And the larger of these two channels may hold more risk. It's a time for caution and local counting.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe

Local Technicals

Today's ES daily candle did the following: 1) it created a 'futures' gap up on the tariff non-news (or the 'manufactured' news), 2) ran up near the upper daily Bollinger Band, 3) closed near the high of the day, and 4) closed on breadth of only about 3.2 -to -1 which is pretty low for the number of points the market rose, and 5) maintained the close over the 18-day SMA with a bullish embedded slow stochastic.

ES Futures - Daily - Gap Up

Today popped slightly outside of the wedge, ran into the 100-day SMA and ran into the 200-day SMA all at the same time. So, there is likely some resistance in this area. Note, this is the second unfilled 'futures' gap up on the chart, which is a little rarer than for the cash gaps.

From a Fibonacci perspective the wave up since 18 Apr is now 100%+ the wave from the 7th to the 9th of last month, too.

And as regards EW there are several levels that could be placed such as (w), (x), (y) or (a), (b), (c) but they depend on whether or not a truncation is seen at the low or not. Suffice to say this could be a 'B' wave up or a '2' wave up with such an ugly count.

It will be interesting to see the put-call ratios when they come out later tonight. The CNN Fear & Greed model is back in the Greed category. Still, the bias and the trend are up until a reversal can be noted. Maybe that will come on a turn-around Tuesday - after a large up Monday. Maybe not.

I'm not getting into this whole tariff thing. It smells to me like it is nothing but announcements for what amounts to insider trading activities, and I don't want to give any energy at all to that kind of activity.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Smaller Wedge Still in Play - 2

While nothing is locked in stone in the ES 4-hr chart, the recent waves have been exceptionally difficult to decode.

The upward diagonal could be over because of the overlaps, and there could be a Flat wave in progress as shown.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Smaller Wedge Still in Play

With a follow-on to the weekend post, the smaller wedge in the ES 4-Hr chart is still in play. And there is clear downward overlap again. Price came down to support from two levels of trend lines.

Let's see if there is downside follow-through.

Have an excellent rest of the day.

TraderJoe

Wedge or Wedgier ?

Over the last several weeks we have been counting this pattern that starts out with a three-wave zigzag. The ES 4-hr chart (using the zigzag indicator to simulate a Neely-style chart) is below. The pattern in the wedge has 113 candles now - very close to the range of the desired 120 - 160 for The Eight-Fold-Path Method. And in the comments for the prior post, we said we could see the overlapping wedge pattern potentially finished as either a contracting diagonal or a triple zigzag. For the moment, there is no point in labeling the pattern until price significantly breaks the lower wedge line. One item to note is that in the potential diagonal count - as we noted in prior comments - nothing has invalidated as of this time.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Wedge

I know you don't want any problems counting waves, but they do exist. One of the biggest ones is in knowing whether a movement is over or not. And we don't know upward movement is over. So, therefore we could also envision an alternate where this leg up extends until, say, Tuesday. If so, then the wedge might expand to make a wider wedge - more towards a channel - and a slightly different count could operate. That count is below.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Larger Wedge or Channel

So, once again, we are in the position of counting very locally until we see if/when we can differentiate between the two counts, even though the first one is preferred at the moment - primarily so that the recent waves don't become too long in time.

A very significant down move on Monday night and follow-through lower might indicate the first pattern is the correct one.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

How, Not Why

IF you've ever done a crossword puzzle, you know it is veritably the crossword editor's job to use clues as tricky and obscure as possible. When, we look at this ES futures 2-hr chart, we see the potential count of one of the supposedly less probable patterns, the contracting diagonal (alternately a triple-zigzag in a wedge).

ES Futures - 2 Hr - Wedge

Whether it's a diagonal - or its related alternate cousin, the triple zigzag - is of a little less importance at the moment, than 'why' it has formed. It's almost as if the market (or its largest players) is intentionally trying to provide the most obscure counts. And, of critical importance, we don't know that the pattern is completed yet.

I know how it has formed - it is the result of the algorithms attempting 1) to stay over the 18-day SMA, and 2) trying to target the upper daily Bollinger Band. These are goal-seeking algorithms trying to destroy every trade made in the market in an effort to reach their goal, well - except those trades made in accordance with the algo's goal, and sometimes even those.

Again, these patterns are supposed to be among the last to be considered using wave analysis. But here they are.

It is good to have this understanding. Using it, I was able to call out the low probabilities of selling near today's lows. And, when a fourth wave didn't develop downward after almost a 2.618 extension - also called out in real time - then it was possible not to spend a lot of time or effort fighting upward wave counts.

All I can say is that it is a very long wave in time. The amount of retrace of the pattern, if any, is quite uncertain. That is not my fault. If the pattern is the diagonal, it 'could' lead to higher prices. If it's the triple zigzag (for a second or a B wave) it could lead to lower prices. The uncertainty is not mine. I am just counting waves locally according to the rules until the appropriate pattern emerges.

Have an excellent start to your evening,

TraderJoe

Trickery? Or Not?

We normally do very straightforward wave counts on arithmetic scale in short timeframes (daily, hourly, etc.). And it is in doing this, that we find that the Dow has a longer wave down for (4) than it does for wave (2). But we have always recognized over long time periods - particularly when inflation is raging - the need to keep log charts. Elliott did this, and the purpose is to measure long-term percentage moves on an index. So, when we do this for the Dow, look what we find.

Only if we "log it", use a semi-log scale, do we find that wave (4) both overlaps wave (1) and it is shorter than wave (2) in percentage terms. Is it trickery, or not? Is it trickery that the FED gets to bend the dollar by manipulating interest rates wildly - from 0% to 5% or vice-versa in a veritable heartbeat?

Well, I will only say this pattern won't be thrown-away because of the arithmetic scale argument. We will instead note that inflation was, in fact, raging >6% for much of this time. So perhaps the log scale is the right one for the job, here.

This doesn't necessarily resolve the issue in the S&P500 which has not overlapped yet. And we have one other word of caution. Look at just how many months the Dow took to make wave (3). That means it will be several months likely until we get a final result. This could agree with a triangle in the SPX, too.

This is the second posting since Friday, so have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

Shredder ?

The Eight-Fold-Path-Method, the featured post on this blog (in the upper right-hand corner of the page under Purpose and Ground Rules) has 133 candles on the two-weekly chart of the S&P500.

At the moment, it is awfully close to that fourth wave signature of +10% of the third wave peak on the EWO. The actual value is +78.8, compared to a peak reading of 748.8; awfully close - maybe "good enough for government work" as the saying goes. Maybe not.

What it tells us is we may have entered the fourth wave, and it may not be completed. Note that wave Intermediate (2) is a sharp wave, as A,B,C, down. And non-overlapping wave Intermediate (4) down is an even faster wave down. 

As with all fourth waves, because of The Fourth Wave Conundrum, we can not promise that this fourth wave will hold up. We can only say it has some good probability of doing so. There are two ways that could happen given the shape of the second wave. It could be that a triangle is forming. We have covered this case before. It would be a real shredder on accounts as triangles are very whippy and difficult to trade. But if we only made three-waves down from the wave (3) high, then this is a violent wave which fits the characteristics of the Minor A wave down of a triangle, as in contracting triangles, the A wave is usually the longest in price and most violent or shortest in time.

But we could, with lower probability I think, hobble up over the top in short order and make a flat wave. The problem with that scenario - even though it provides alternation - is that if there is a lower low as the eventual result of a flat or an expanded flat wave, then it would very likely overlap on wave (1).

But, if overlap were to happen, the alternate wave red (4) would have to be considered for the expanding diagonal.

Another advantage of the triangle is that, in the Dow, which has a shorter wave up to Intermediate (3), it has already overlapped downward in a longer wave. That scenario does not meet the rules for any diagonal scenario, contracting or expanding. However, triangles are measured to their wave E's, and this could both eliminate the overlap in the Dow, and the too long measurement of the down wave.

So, we'll take it a step at a time, but the bottoming tails and the ferocious daily gaps are suggestive that we perhaps are in a triangle, and we need to act appropriately. A last advantage of a triangle is that they often give that pesky Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO) time to come back to the zero line.

Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.

TraderJoe

SPY Local Count

Here is the SPY 4-Hr chart (yes, with all those gaps) and the current idea for a local count. The A down, B up is for the upward diagonal scenario. This would be followed by a C down to Intermediate (4) of the larger monthly diagonal and overlap of wave (1), up. The 1 down, 2 up is for the Primary Ⓑ wave at the all-time high.

In this case, the A/1 down is the extended fifth wave scenario, and the minute Ⓥ wave is the vicious climax low we called out on the NYSE Adv/Dec line in real time.

Please note the alt: ⓨ notation should the move fail at this location.

Have an excellent rest of the day,

TraderJoe

Keeping It Simple in GOLD (GC)

We said we were counting GOLD in parallels until we could no longer. The latest parallel comes from the GOLD (GC futures) 4-Hr chart below. The parallel is shown in blue. As the orange dashed line shows there is no downward overlap as yet.

GOLD (GC Futures) - 4 Hr - Parallel

Still, what can be seen and measured is that the fourth wave (iv) is longer than the largest depth of the prior wave (ii) as the Fibonacci ruler shows. So, the two waves should be of the same degree or else the recent down wave is of one larger degree. For the moment, we'll suggest they are the same degree until / unless there is overlap. 

Next, we see that wave (iv) breaks the Neely-style 0 - (ii) trend line suggesting this down wave is really a fourth wave. The fourth wave still looks corrective, and can be counted as a simple a,b,c (not shown).

So, the chart suggests there will be a fifth wave up. It also suggests that wave (v) will be shorter than the longest wave (iii) that could be drawn because wave (iii) is shorter than wave (i). This suggests a clear invalidation point that readers of this blog should attempt to locate as an exercise. In this case, because of uncertainty in the length of (ii) a small range is acceptable.

A fourth thing to note is the potential truncation at the low on the 8th, and also possibly in wave (ii). Gold has been exceptionally strong, so downward truncations are potentially to be expected, and they should not be counted as additional i-ii's.

So, if a fifth wave (v) forms as a new high, and if it remains shorter than (iii) then one could begin to look for confirmation steps of a turn. The first would be a break of the wave (ii)-to-(iv) trend line in less time than wave (v) took to form. The second step would be trading below wave (iv). And a third step would be trading below wave (ii).

And, if a fifth wave does not form, then perhaps the three waves up are just the B wave part of a larger triangle correction to become more apparent in the future. And if (v) becomes longer than (iii), then likely a diagonal of some sort will need to be considered.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend and holiday if you are celebrating it,

TraderJoe

Lower Highs, but ...

With today's close in the cash market, the last four bars of the daily ES futures have a pattern of lower highs. But, as yet, there has not been a significant lower low.

So, there can be a number of patterns at play including a couple of triangles. Still, price is currently below the 18-day SMA and so has a negative bias. The daily slow stochastic has worked off an over-sold condition and is neutral at the midline.

A lower low than yesterday would likely have the effect of making a lower high and a lower low below the 18-day SMA, but that hasn't happened yet. So, we just remain flexible and are counting on smaller time frames.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

What will Yields Yield?

Here's a look at the 10 Yr US Gov't Note Yield on a weekly close basis, the way I have counted since the low, so far.

IF we've completed a triangle, and it looks it, then there could be one good pop up to 5.5 - 6%. The MACD looks very flat and near the zero line. The Minor E wave of the triangle did come back to cross over the Intermediate (3) wave to the left, validating a potential running triangle. The next expectation would be to exceed the high of wave B at minimum.

One might note that considering just the A wave as a (4)th wave location, instead, does not provide good alternation with wave (2). The triangle provides excellent alternation and is much longer in time, as well.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe

Unparalleled ?

We said we were counting Gold (GC Futures) upward in parallels until we could no longer. The upward wave measurements recently have locally gotten disproportionate. So, we went back to the wave count to see what other look makes sense. The monthly chart of GOLD is below with the tentative adjustment and a new parallel.

GOLD (GC Futures) - Monthly - New Parallel ?

The suggestion in this count is that the overall diagonal, down, from 2011 was a Primary Ⓐ wave down, followed by a stubby Primary Ⓑ wave, and a truncated Primary Ⓒ wave down to Cycle wave IV. Then, the 2020 up wave is a Primary ① wave, and so on, as labeled. This provides the proportion that Primary ③ is now a little longer than 1.618 x Primary ① on linear scale. One will note the EWO is on a maximum. Soon, a Primary ④th wave could get underway. Note that both the right edge of the lower trend channel has risen above the Primary ① location and so has the monthly EMA-34.

Having said that, please note that GOLD is starting to make the news regularly, as below.

And, as Ira indicates, there are many, many "buy side" analysts recommending GOLD, so this could be a sign sentiment is heating up and a correction is due.

Nothing on the charts says GOLD is a sell yet. We don't know that Primary ③ is over. But GOLD is up to the upper daily Bollinger Band in an over-bought condition and not embedded. So, it bears watching yet. And any fourth wave could be very grindy, meaning that it could be difficult to trade.

Still, no other proportion seems reasonable at this time on the longer-term time scale. Price has surpassed most other measurements of comparison with smaller degree labels.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

Still Some Odds

Tonight, I wanted to briefly cover another alternative I thought of which says that the decline is not quite over, yet. Previously, I have showed you ways I think the market could go higher (see post at this LINK). Here is one where I show you a way that the market could go lower. The is on the ES 8-hr chart and it is response to the question, "What if the market is in a smaller, not a larger, triangle?"

If I reconfigure the decline as five minute-degree waves, with an extended fifth wave shown as xⓥ, then that could be the Minor A wave, down. The smaller triangle could be a Minor B wave up. And this could be followed by a Minor C wave down to overlap the 2022 high - which hasn't happened yet.

So far, we have one zigzag up - shown as (a), (b), (c) to ⓐ of B. So, a lot more market churn could happen in the news if this scenario were to play out before the Minor C wave down got underway.

To be fair, the B wave could also be "any three", such as a double-zigzag so it could play out that the level of B is higher - more near the prior minute fourth wave - which is often a target for B waves.

And then, under this scenario the C wave could be either an impulse or a tough-on-the-nerves diagonal.

All, this is just an option at this time. IF we trade above ⓐ of the triangle, and significantly above the minute fourth wave, circle-iv, then the option simply becomes lower odds.

The problem at the moment is we are in no-one's land, and we still need to count locally until the larger structure becomes more clear.

Have an excellent rest of the evening and the weekend,

TraderJoe

Whip on Wednesday

Yesterday, we clearly warned that price was four consecutive days closing below the lower daily Bollinger Band. We even clearly titled the post, "Day Four". Today, in a whippy day, we probably closed inside the band (as this is written, there is about 20-minutes of futures trading yet). Here is the ES daily chart as of this time.

After the daily slow stochastic was over-sold, only, and not embedded, price made an outside reversal bar up. And there would not be much to speak about immediately to the downside unless the low of today's bar is taken out lower in the next two trading sessions.

A day like today is what was anticipated IF the longer-range triangle scenario, posted on March 29th were to come to pass (see LINK here).

So, it is pretty clear we have only three-waves down off the high. The speed of the move and depth of the move indicates it could still be the Minor A wave - but of a triangle OR, it is just three-waves down of a downward diagonal.

So let me be clear about these two scenarios:

1. The only way down from here is by diagonal.
2. The ways UP could be by impulse, diagonal or triangle.

So, it's a mess-and-a-half but as an Elliott analyst one has to keep the larger potential patterns in mind while one is counting locally.

The problem at present is that the market is almost wholly captive to the news. That often results in triangle patterns and decreased trading volumes. But being captive to the news is exactly the way the Smart Money wants it. That is because they own the news-reading algorithms that can take instantaneous advantage of the news. How easy is to write a computer program that says, essentially, if you see the words "Tariff postponed", "Tariff delayed", "China Tariff reduced", etc. in a news story, then BUY.

And because the Smart Money is involved, it would not surprise me at all if the news stories were being coordinated so that the appropriate people who are responsible for making these stories get their commensurate kickbacks. This is America, after all, home to some of the greatest corruption on the planet. And in every situation where large sums are involved, there almost inevitably follow the news stories of who was on the take. We shall see if history rhymes again.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Day Four

On the ES daily chart, today is the fourth consecutive close below the lower daily Bollinger Band, as shown. This drops the odds to about 2 - 4% of another close below the band. This does not mean that another close below the band is impossible. It just means the odds are dropping considerably.

The regular calculation of the daily slow stochastic is not embedded. It is over-sold. But both the %K and the %D lines are below the 20 level for the second day. So, the third day needs to be watched to see if the embedded status is obtained.

Intraday we made a new high over yesterday in a false breakout. Then we spent about 6 hours in a down trend that we can count as five-waves. So, we may need to spend several hours retracing that move if it is over.

From April 6th, because we can overall count an a,b,c up, we also need to monitor to see that this whippy behavior is not some form of triangle. For example, today it is curious that the down move was a 78.6% retrace on the up move.  By itself, that may be of little significance and a Flat could form in the upward direction as part of a second wave ii of wave (v), or simple lower lows could form. But because this is overall a fourth wave, it needs to be monitored for triangle formations as well, and to observe if they invalidate or not. It may be way too early in the wave structure for triangles, so just observe to find the best count that follows the rules.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Another Bump

When we left off counting on Friday, we were looking for a fourth wave. The ES 8-hr chart below seems to indicate one was made. This chart presently has about 90 candles on it, so it can develop more in time.

ES Futures - 8 Hr - Minuette (iv) ?

Price is still in the parallel. The chart suggests that a further wave minuette (v) of the minute third wave should be made, followed by a larger fourth wave, minute four (circle-iv). Then, for an impulse there should be a minute fifth wave down (circle-v).

The EWO is still on a low, so we'll begin to look for divergences soon.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Brutal Counting

Today we counted down a likely third wave with two, not one, expanding diagonals at different degrees of trend. The wave counting is brutal. The intraday trading subsequently difficult. There can be no question that our diagonal target was met. And it raises the point that this monthly count may still be on the table for the S&P and the NDX. The ES futures are shown here to be representative.

We have shown the skeletons of this count many times. It is the diagonal count to a Primary ⑤th wave that would end Cycle V. Now, finally, on the downside, there is something to work with. Wave (3) is just barely longer than wave (1) in price, and it is clearly longer in time.

We made a notation on the chart regarding possible potential alternation in wave (4). Interested readers should view it. Please keep in mind that I have sketched out an idealized wave (4). Like all fourth waves they can get much crazier than this. Sometimes in a diagonal, wave A comes very down near the trend line before the bounce. Sometimes there is a triangle in the middle of the fourth wave to slow things down and cause traders to lose money fast. Sometimes the Minor B wave bounce is 90% or very nearly there to confuse people with a flat.

But first things first. Overlap on 4,808.25 would first be expected. Then, after overlap, wave (4) must hold above wave (2) to avoid invalidation. Often the fourth wave takes more time than the second wave. So, that's the way we've shown it. And it often retraces 62 - 82% of wave (3) in price. So, the Fibonacci ruler is shown as a guide.

Careful readers might note that the Minor A wave of Intermediate (3) is shown as an expanding diagonal itself. This is what is known as a fractal of the larger pattern if it should play out as shown. It is the only way I can count the wave to observe degree labeling requirements.

Keep in mind this is a monthly bar chart. So, this pattern can take a very long time to come to fruition. To novice technicians it might look like it is forming a large head & shoulders pattern which then fails to play out. 

And if it does invalidate? Place a Primary ⑤ and Cycle V at the high of 2022, a Primary Ⓐ at the bottom of October 2022, and a Primary Ⓑ at the high in 2025, and Primary Ⓒ and cycle a at the low near 2,000 (price) to match the low of Primary ④. We just think the market should have the option of ending a very long wave with a diagonal, and the above count is it, for now.

Have an excellent start to the weekend.

TraderJoe