The ES daily futures today had a close below the "line in the sand", the 18-day simple moving average of closes, as shown on the daily chart below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Close Below 18-SMA |
This is the second such close and follows a "battle for the line in the sand". The daily slow stochastic is not yet in oversold territory.
With the overnight lower low, the swing line indicator is currently pointed down but needs to undercut Friday's low to firmly establish a downward trend.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, we are watching two consecutive rejections of the 62% Fibonacci level. The first one occurred at the ES 6,377 - 80 level in the overnight session, and the second one occurred after the morning downdraft at the 6,350 level. And the lower low in the overnight may be a bit of a clue.
So, this is a good time to watch the developments carefully and see if a better-defined wave sequence takes place or if price will just bounce around between the Bollinger Bands. We have made the case for the former, but it's up to the market to decide.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Friday A wave. Rebound a of B. Yesterday dip b of B. Rally today c of a-b-c to complete B. The 5th of c a diagonal. That's what I've got. Right wrong?
ReplyDeleteA labeled chart, would be a nice start. 😏
DeleteYes it would. Unfortunately blogspot doesn't allow posting of images directly, and I don't sub to a link making service, so can't.
DeleteI think we might have to find some other magic wand besides ew
Deletehttps://postimages.org/
DeleteThis is a free service
A chart is below. TJ.
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DeleteES 30-min: there is no proof this is correct. It is only suggested by some probabilities. The market was again fighting with the first 62% retracement.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0urSVOwA/
TJ
note: the w-x-y count could be the same as a leading diagonal if it extends to w-x-y-x-z and makes higher highs, and if the down count is incorrect. TJ.
DeleteES 1 Hr: overlap on Aug 5th high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteStill counting this way because of overlaps: with a revision in the 'y' wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bekRNjxY/
TJ
ES 1 Hr: measurement fyi - so by measurement, any move below 6,338 in the CFD would invalidate a diagonal in that index and probably suggest lower, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/u48ZM0xJ/
Readers should perform the same on the ES.
TJ
CFD has invalidated a continued contracting diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gttNjgkz/
TJ
ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen; chart is a little behind but ES has tagged both the 100-per SMA and fallen from the R2 daily pivot, through the R1 pivot and down to the daily pivot (P).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0XQglICv/
There are currently three closes below the band, dropping the odds of the next close outside the band to 2 - 4%. The slow stochastic is in over-sold territory. Watch to see if it embeds. While it might be time to be cautious, lower, there is nothing bullish on the chart until/unless price regains the 18-per SMA (confluence with R1 at the moment).
TJ
..now a close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: this is the count I have. But, there is no telling whether the up wave is over.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J1ox1wVG/
A good alternate (not shown) is 1 at purple 'a', and then a Flat for 2. But again, there is no way to know the up wave is over.
TJ
P.S. There appear to be choppy diagonals everywhere you look and very little truly impulsive activity. TJ.
DeleteIf purple a is 1, then we count 3, 3, 5 for correction, correct? Thx!
DeleteSame count. 5 down as 1 or A.
ReplyDelete🙃
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ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
TJ