As of today, the market has suggested slightly contracting trend lines shown in the daily SPY cash index, as below. At this time, they are tentative only.
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| SPY Cash - Daily - Suggestions |
While we were able to count an impulse down, and then either a full or partial (we think the latter) retrace today, the market path is pretty unclear just now. As the daily ES chart below shows, price settled just above the 18-day SMA in a Doji candle.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Neutral |
The slow stochastic is stuck in the middle, so this summertime chart is about as neutral as it can get. Still, taking out yesterday's low - tomorrow - would be more bearish than it would be bullish as it would take out the low of an outside-day-up in less than two sessions (IF it does).
This is a great time for patience, flexibility and small commitments, if any. We're doing our best to count locally, but the number of choppy diagonals on the chart is astounding (see last comments in prior post).
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I really like the simple format of the top chart in this post.
ReplyDeleteHow about expanded flat last night and c this morning. Just one of the many possibilities
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 15-min: looks like an overnight triangle and thrust out.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/whjq0xmN/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) and ES 30-min from the intraday wave-counting-screen: outside reversal candle. Watch the high of the candle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UYsfKIU8/
TJ
Wave-counting-stop above, overlap warning below, and new up (green) fractal added.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OdYx1B8c/
TJ
wave-counting-stop exceeded higher. TJ.
DeleteSPY/ES (CFD) 5-min: IF it's Friday we must be in a wedge again. Choice of two wedges, one of which is complete (* at the high). It remains to be seen if/when it might break down, and/or if the wedge shape is maintained or instead price pushes out the upper wedge boundary.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uBnehVtB/
TJ
There's a new one, a new higher high with a 'negative' AO.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YVx2HdNG/
Notice how they depend on the Interactive-Broker's bar (I-B bar), which is when the I-B margin requirements must be met (@15:50 ET every trading day). This is a very consistent market mechanic to be aware of.
TJ
So the implication is that people were short so they had to cover today at 3.50?
DeleteYes, tempered with the fact that it is the weekend, and a lot of people (long or short) in the futures don't want the 'news risk' over the weekend, so they close - favorable or not. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ