Close below 18-day SMA

The ES daily futures today had a close below the "line in the sand", the 18-day simple moving average of closes, as shown on the daily chart below.

ES Futures - Daily - Close Below 18-SMA

This is the second such close and follows a "battle for the line in the sand". The daily slow stochastic is not yet in oversold territory.

With the overnight lower low, the swing line indicator is currently pointed down but needs to undercut Friday's low to firmly establish a downward trend.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, we are watching two consecutive rejections of the 62% Fibonacci level. The first one occurred at the ES 6,377 - 80 level in the overnight session, and the second one occurred after the morning downdraft at the 6,350 level. And the lower low in the overnight may be a bit of a clue.

So, this is a good time to watch the developments carefully and see if a better-defined wave sequence takes place or if price will just bounce around between the Bollinger Bands. We have made the case for the former, but it's up to the market to decide.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe