After three daily closes above the upper daily Bollinger Band, price today made a higher high, a higher low and a lower close. The three closes higher than the upper band dropped the odds to about 3 - 5% of today's close being outside the upper band, and it was not. (While the futures are still trading as this is being written, we think it likely represents the 4 PM EDT settlement time of the futures.)
Note that the daily swing-line indicator is still up with higher highs and a higher low over the 18-day SMA. The daily slow stochastic is still embedded. And until the red line of the slow stochastic closes under the 79 level it is possible there are some pros (or Smart Money machines) that might still try for a higher high against the upper band again.
From an EW perspective today we counted a possible non-overlapping fourth wave down, (iv), as an Expanded Flat. So, a fifth wave up, (v) is possible tomorrow. But, being Tuesday it could also be a turn day, as well.
It is likely that the prior swing-line low of 6318.75 would be of interest as it might indicate the end of an uptrend, and, if broken, would likely be below the 18-day SMA.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
ES has a new daily low - and this follows the caution issued yesterday, that there could be a breakdown into possibly a larger pre-FED triangle. Nothing is broken yet. TJ.
ReplyDeleteActually, Novo Nordisk is broken. And if a great growth company like NVO can’t make their numbers and foresees problems ahead, what about run-of-the-mill companies?
ReplyDeleteReminder: FOMC decision at the top of the hour followed by presser @ 14:30 ET.
ReplyDeleteSPY Cash 5-min: prior to the decision SPY cash has an overlapping and contracting pattern. It may turn into a diagonal. It may not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RYDjkj4X/
TJ
Rates left unchchanged, according to FxStreet.com TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY cash 5-min: more overlaps. Can not go below 6,405 to maintain a continued contracting diagonal. TJ
ReplyDeleteYou meant es for 6405
ReplyDeleteYes, apologies. Thx, TJ.
DeleteIn SPY it is 635.28 TJ.
DeleteES down through the prior low. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: diagonal successfully concluded; watch the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Fjos6Srs/
TJ
ES down through the prior low. TJ.
DeleteES downward overlap on the 29 Jul high. Likely in the Minor B wave down, now. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere's the overlap in the CFD; ES is a little more clear.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4lKqsnKM/
TJ
Chair Powell press conference is concluded. TJ.
ReplyDelete(From CNBC) Trump slaps universal 50% tariff on copper imports; metal’s price plunges.
ReplyDeleteES Daily - as of this time, the daily slow stochastic has slipped below that 79 level, and it currently at 75. It would be worth it to see how it closes at the end of the session. It could possibly lose that embedded reading. TJ.
ReplyDeleteReminder: MSFT, META, etc. earnings after the close. TJ.
ReplyDeleteMSFT beat:
DeleteEarnings per share: $3.65 per share vs. $3.37 per share expected
Revenue: $ 76.44 billion vs. $73.81 billion expected
TJ
META beat:
DeleteEarnings per share: $7.14 vs. $5.92 expected
Revenue: $47.52 vs. $44.80 billion expected
TJ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GxIYpMeboAAcWpr?format=png&name=4096x4096
ReplyDeleteSPX Monthly: While the current candle won't print until tomorrow's close, this 100yr Fib study from the depression low to this week's ATH is a marvel to behold: We have hit the 161.8 fib extension off the depression low from 1932, which also hit fibonacci-fan resistance off the same 1932 low (the fan also caught multiple secular bottoms and tops over the last century), and a fibonacci timing signal for this very month which is coming off that 1974 decade+ secular low (a level that at the time had plummetted down to the 1959 high). Significant fractal fibs are also noted for all points during the intervening years.