...but Tuesday through Friday overall was slow and overlapping in a channel. Therefore, it appears with the waves we have there is most or all of an a, b, c down. It may be a corrective wave with the basic form shown in the ES hourly chart, below. And, if it is a corrective wave, the structure would be diagonal for a, then impulse for c - which would be good alternation in a corrective wave.
But I caution, this is definitely not the only way to read the chart. The current b wave could be only part of a larger corrective flat, before making a larger wave down. Still, we'll count what is before us and, if the market says differently, we'll accept it and fit it into the larger picture. Remember - at minimum - on the daily chart we are still looking for a minute ⓔ wave that breaks the prior minute ⓒ wave low, for the expanding triangle, and maybe more if the expanded flat is to occur for the Minor B wave.
Interestingly, this count started out with a diagonal for the (A) wave, down, of wave ①, and it is a good illustration of a fractal-in-a-fractal, or a smaller degree wave being self-similar to the larger degree wave a which was also a diagonal, overall. And, wave-counters-beware, while it is tempting to count everything including Ⓑ down as part of the diagonal, there is a Flat in the futures (which makes a lower low) that prevents such a count as wave four in a diagonal cannot be a flat wave.
So, that's what we have at present. Could the wave go down to 90% of the prior up wave and make the larger b wave of a larger flat since 8th March? It could. Could the wave break the low again? It certainly could. Again, nothing to the downside will surprise us. If anything is surprising us at present it is the lack of upside. Even though short-term wave patterns like a double zigzag are being invalidated, the daily bias is still to the downside, and, as of Friday, the intraday bias is still to the downside as well.
Still, daily prices have made two consecutive closes below the lower daily Bollinger Band, dropping the odds to about 5 - 7% of the next close being lower than the band (not impossible - just lower odds). And the daily slow stochastic is in over-sold territory and not embedded. So, one should tread cautiously and patiently in the interim.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
If correct, that has got to be the strangest abc wave I have ever seen! The a and c ratio, if you are saying c is complete, is very disproportionate indeed. Counting this current market is like herding cats!
ReplyDeletec may be completed or may stretch further down to make 90% or more. Or, if the angle or lack of steepness in the wave is just temporary and the market reaccelerates, like with major stop losses being hit, then relabel a-b as i-ii.
DeleteTJ
The corrective count has been invalidated in SPY and DOW
ReplyDeletetrue, unless the down wave is the 'b' wave of a flat/expanded flat; then still corrective. TJ.
DeleteES 1-hr: here's where things are 1/2 hour after the open in the roll-over contract. Some charting services are doing the roll today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/C8tZ1gu1/
I'd watch the blue 'b' wave high, and the subsequent gap in SPY cash 30-min.
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: 'can be' counted as five-up with the higher high in both the CFD and the futures. It 'could be' that there would be an overnight running triangle, too, and a higher high again before a retrace wave lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oxExTW7T/
But a retrace wave 'could' start at any time. There are enough waves, at present - just uncertain about the pattern of alternation.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ