You've heard of "Freeways", right? Where traffic is supposed to zoom along like I-15 to Las Vegas, right? Not like the "405" that crawls you down to a crunch stop on the way from LA to San Diego, right? Well, today's market, so far, in front of the Federal Reserve announcement, dot-plots, and press conference is more like the latter, but what I have termed temporarily "Three-Ways".
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| ES/SPY/CFD - 2 Hr - Three-wave Sequences Only |
As of this morning anyways, the two-hourly ES/SPY/CFD has only three-wave sequences. And last night's up wave was longer than the immediately prior b wave. Further, note the downward c wave stopped around that 78.6% level which could indicate a triangle.
So, the bottom line is that highs or lows need to be broken to get out of this mess. A triangle is possible, overall. A downward diagonal is possible for the most recent wave. Fittingly, the front-month ES contract is only down to the 18-day SMA as of last night with the daily slow stochastic in over-bought condition only (not embedded) - and this is where it often goes in front of major announcements.
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| ES Sep Futures - Daily - Bounce from 18-day SMA |
So, be careful as whippy conditions could prevail. Lots of valid Elliott Wave structures are valid from here, so it is more a case now of ruling out what becomes not possible - or less possible - based on price lengths made today. On the first 2-hr chart, one might especially watch the 78.6% upward level in the triangle eventuality, or the low of the c wave in the downward diagonal eventuality.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
ES/SPY/CFD 15-min: going into the FED, the blue down wave is longer in price than the black down wave. That will help sort out some possibilities.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tJjHgMgN/
TJ
FED decision leaves rates unchanged. Some higher interest rate projections. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere is the wizard chart for the fed.
ReplyDeletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TSH7
Thanks for all the work TJ! I check in daily, but I think we are going to need months to sort this out.
See below. TJ.
DeleteES Daily - interesting there was no new daily higher high on the FED. They are apparently handcuffed by uncertainty over the tariffs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pjjudyRX/
Then, prices got back to the 18-day SMA and bounced a bit. A big question is whether lower daily lows can be made, if higher daily highs were not. That would likely 'set' a downtrend in place - if it occurs.
TJ
And now there's the added uncertainty of an attack on Iran, which would of course feed into oil prices and eventually the CPI. WTI is the same price as it was 19 years ago, so a pop to $140ish would have major market implications.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY/CFD 1 hr: in terms of the overnight count, there appears to be a diagonal down to a new daily low. That might end a count of (a), (b), (c) lower as 3-3-5 in accordance with prior charts, and as shown below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4gPxQpJa/
There is now a 62% or greater retrace. Such a wave up 'could' go over the high but does not have to, in the case of a complex correction. But it COULD go over the high in the case of a 'multiple-flat' correction.
TJ
Three waves up, so far. So, overlap level added. The count would favor the blue
Delete③ more, IF the up wave got higher. But either is still valid in any case.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jrJdLZ6q/
Kind-of no-man's land.
TJ
Overlap warning triggered. Downward wave is longer in price than Ⓑ. This limits any up move to a diagonal. Be cautious of the low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6wzu3otj/
TJ
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_500_rasi_might_actually_be_different_this_time/
ReplyDeleteGood Read! Thx!
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ