On the SPY 15-min timeframe, we do not know that the up wave is over even though it shows signs of tiring. But, so far, the best count is :3, down, and :3, up, to now more than 90% of the prior cash high. As always this is a sign of a potential "b" wave of a Flat, or expanded flat, or the next impulse wave up. See the chart below.
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| SPY Cash - 15 Min - 3-3- ? |
Since tomorrow is Tuesday, one might ask, "if today was an up Monday, will tomorrow see a turn on Tuesday"?. We don't know for sure, but the chart above suggests such a thing is possible. Note the cash high corresponds to the futures limit we posted in yesterday's chart.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPY/ES (CFD) afterhours ..15 -min: might watch the new up channel, purple, and potential overlap warning in orange.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FOau0b2n/
TJ
..an overnight triangle might work, as well. TJ.
DeleteTJ, thanks a lot, like your answer, the NDX is still the same waiting for wave C?
ReplyDeleteDJIA 19/5 gap almost closed.
ReplyDeleteES 1-hr: price is about a point away from reaching the 90% level as shown would be possible if the 'critical' price from Saturday's post was reached. This would be for a regular flat. Any rise does not have to be over, yet, and could go over the top for an expanded flat. We'll have to see how that plays out.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UO9lhCFh/
TJ
if it's a large B wave, 90% would get us to 6020, the daily Bollinger band area.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. Market movement has been newsy and whippy. Watching to see if the 9:30 high becomes a true fractal or not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tbO8hHmZ/
Also watching to see if we get closes below the intraday 18-period.
TJ
With the 11 am bar close the 09:30 is now a legit up (green) fractal. TJ.
DeleteNow the 10 am low is a true down (red) fractal. Price close right on the 18-per.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/grwsNwBJ/
Chart is the usual 10-min behind.
TJ
fyi only - intraday slow stochastic is over-bought only, and BBands are narrowing. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: first close below 18-per, and intraday slow stochastic falling off. Might target lower band. Watching to see if 11:30 am bar becomes a true fractal or not.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tyX3LeZ9/
TJ
fyi only - initial target of lower band at 5,980 hit. Watch those two down (red) fractals. TJ.
Deletefyi only - one close below the lower bad; odds 5-7%, and the 11:00-11:30 bar is now a true up (green) fractal.
DeleteES 30-min: close back inside the band & reset the number of consecutive closes. TJ.
DeleteI didn't see this on the newswires yet. FED Beige book.
ReplyDeleteReports across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity has declined
slightly since the previous report. Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in
activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth. All Districts
reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a
cautious approach to business and household decisions. Manufacturing activity declined slightly.
Consumer spending reports were mixed, with most Districts reporting slight declines or no
change; however, some Districts reported increases in spending on items expected to be affected
by tariffs. Residential real estate sales were little changed, and most District reports on new home
construction indicate flat or slowing construction activity. Reports on bank loan demand and
capital spending plans were mixed. Activity at ports was robust, while reports on transportation
and warehouse activity in other areas were mixed. On balance, the outlook remains slightly pessi
mistic and uncertain, unchanged relative to the previous report. However, a few District reports
indicate the outlook has deteriorated while a few others indicate the outlook has improved.
TJ
ES 30-min: after the close outside the lower band (odds 5 - 7%), price closed inside the band again and then tried the top band but missed. This is a sign of weakness. Then, towards the close, in another grinding downward move, price hit the lower band again (normal strength).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9xE8HYMH/
Tomorrow morning is the weekly unemployment report. Have a good start to the evening.
TJ
ES 30-min: lower low than Unemployment low. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES (SPY/CFD) 30-min: there is upward overlap, so one more trip over the high is possible to establish cash and futures at the same location.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/c0qsF0eE/
TJ
Enough to make your neck hurt.
ReplyDeleteFutures reached 90% of the down move today and immediately dropped. A C wave from here would probably continue into mid July. I'm not saying it will be a C, but it would be the most surprising move for the market participants.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.