...see what's become of me. With no apologies to Simon & Garfunkel - who certainly don't need mine - the purpose of this post is only to note the time relationships between the down wave and the up wave in the ES/SPY (CFD) 2-hr chart below.
As of right now, there are only roughly half the number of up bars as down bars. And strictly speaking that's ok, but slightly lower odds. Often times corrections take as much time or more as their motive wave counterparts. So, in the comments for the prior post, I outlined some ways that this correction - which certainly looks like a Flat - could extend in time as a multiple flat or a Flat-X-Zigzag.
Predicting such is horrible stuff, and the market could always decide that the downward pull of a third wave (C wave, or not) is simply too great for now and a next wave could break lower at nearly any point. Keep in mind, today's up wave was made on news and sometimes those form weaker waves because only the pros/bots/machines get to react other than retail stops being hit.
Nonetheless, I do think the presence of the Flat wave - whether it continues or not - with its lower "b" wave argues more for a follow-on wave lower than an immediate return to the high. This is all a game of odds, and the Flat tilts the odds a bit in favor of a continuation wave lower.
Looking at today's daily bar, it was an outside day up with a close still below the 18-day SMA. Also, it is the second bar after the outside day down on Tuesday, so a trap was not set for the bears. But being an outside day up, it's low should not be taken out within the next two sessions or it would constitute a trap for the bulls.
The daily slow stochastic is still over-sold.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Looks like the potential flat has to be incomplete as the putative "b" wave appears less than 90%, so I think you are right about that b wave lower ahead, possibly even with a tricky lower low if of the expanded variety. Lol!
ReplyDeleteNo. The 'b' wave exceeded the low, already. It is more than 100%, and you're misreading the flat. We are in the 'c' wave up or the ,'y' wave up as posted numerous times in the prior comments.
DeleteTJ
The TASS news agency is reporting that the pronouncements of the man in the WH are fallacious! How is it possible that markets react to any statements from a person repeatedly demonstrated to be a serial fibber? I suspect the truth is that they do not! Lol! Makings of our potential expanded flat perhaps? 😂
ReplyDeleteThanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteInteresting how regulators changed subscription for tomorrow.
https://x.com/0xReflection/status/2064697208755175890
In case you didn't get my hint, I am really not at all interested in anything to do with this. Please post no more about it. TJ.
DeleteTrader Joe, I would just like to acknowledge that you have really been out-doing yourself in the quality of your recent posts. 💯
DeleteI'm not certain if other readers of your blog realize that the quality, accuracy, and sheer excellence of your work stands head and shoulders above the output of subscription services which many people likely spend hundreds of dollars per month on, but I myself am grateful for it. 🙏🏻
As I have mentioned over the years, your crystal-clear market analysis often provides solid confirmation for my own work, which is priceless. 🪙
And no, I'm not suggesting that you start charging subscriptions to this blog. I think that your generosity in sharing your work with the world is commendable, along with your clear impulse to freely educate others who will listen. 🧑🏫
thanks for saying and pay up! (j/k) TJ.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/PfGVTGcP
ReplyDeleteDOW- DIA 30 minute chart with afterhours. 3 waves down, 3 waves up.
completed 5 waves up now.
DeleteNew Russell ATH. With interest rates projected to rise, no less. Kabuki Theatre Markets!! Have a great weekend all!
ReplyDeleteThings are going normal everything counting as per ew and then some algo which has not been programmed based on ew f'ck its up. Case in point.today after the first 2 hours
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ