Today's wave structure was difficult unless you were possibly expecting a crazy (meaning multiple segment) fourth wave. These can sometimes happen in the market. Those of you that followed the market intraday know that a bout of selling hit that drove the market to a small outside reversal day down. Readers of this blog should confirm that on the ES daily chart. The SPY cash market got to within -0.03 of a new high, shown below, but couldn't do it today. At 712.35 the SPY could not get over the prior high of 712.38 and then headed lower in five waves. So, the ivth wave looks to be a compound flat. That's fine, nothing wrong with it at these length dimensions. The reason we think it's a Flat is that the highs are well within the 90% level of the prior highs required by the 'rule' for a flat wave.
Then, after the decline on the SPY 10-min chart, there was a quick retrace followed by sideways action as shown above. So, until we know more, this can be a setup for a vth wave higher in the minuet (c) wave of Minute ⓘ. I would watch something like the parallel shown - which should be adjusted when the second wave, ②, is known. Then a third wave of v might take us over the prior high.
As far as I can tell, today's low should hold or the downward wave would likely overlap and cause complications to have to deal with. So far, it hasn't but it is marked as invalidation for that reason.
If the vth wave can hold its length dimensions, then it might be possible to call minuet (c) and minute ⓘ done and over. If not, we'll look to the alternate impulse count of Minor C, not the diagonal count.
The trading is whippy and choppy and still calling for much patience and flexibility. For example, anyone that thought we were going directly over the high today had a big surprise handed to them until about 14:00 hrs. That shouldn't be us. We know the character of fourth waves to be 1) complicated, 2) mis-leading, and 3) do everything but overlap their prior first waves. It certainly feels like that is the wave personality we are dealing with. So, take it slow & comfortable. The market will let you know.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
Lol! Flat waves are notorious for their ability to bamboozle traders, bull and bear alike. That is quite a bullish "possible" count.
ReplyDeleteDOW CEO Jim Fitterling has been stating the obvious, when he opines that clearing the log-jam in the Hormuz strait will take longer than investors expect. He anticipates 275 days at the least and possibly more than a year if it fully opened today. Are investors that stupid? Or is something else going on? When you look at what it actually costs to acquire a barrel of oil, compared to the laughable profferings of futures and so-called "spot" price, methinks it is something else...just saying ..
ReplyDeleteLOL
DeleteNasdaq futures up 4350 points from March 30th. I have never seen such a rally in atleast 25 years. Unprecedented.
ReplyDeleteI can count series gaps totalling 7 since the 3/30 low. Start, or End of an extended bull run? Hmmmnn...!
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 15-min: overnight the futures made a higher high while cash SPY did not as it was not open in the regular-trading-hours session.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DFN4BTmH/
So, it is possible that a diagonal is forming like this. Note the invalidation level and the possibility of 62% - 81% retraces.
TJ
ES futures daily - there is 7,200 and your Gann people might say, "that's 20 x a circle" or 20 x 360 degrees. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: BOLO (be on the look-out) if lower lows form, we might start an overlapping fourth wave; otherwise on a Friday there might be a running triangle in here, and three might extend a bit, as shown in red.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ov76Ww4h/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ