The ES/SPY (CFD) futures have declined in the overnight sufficiently to overlap the first wave, i, in a diagonal sequence. Therefore, the appearance is that the diagonal five waves in the futures resulted in five waves in the cash market. The diagonal is shown below in the ES/SPY (CFD) 2-hr chart below.
In the diagonal wave v < iii < i, and wave iv is shorter than ii, with wave iv overlapping wave i. Cash can be counted without overlap.
Now the only questions are 1) the degree of the waves, and 2) is the diagonal leading or ending? With regard to the second question first, it seems atrocious to suggest a leading diagonal this high in the wave count, but the simple fact is that major earnings are still due this week, along with a FOMC meeting. So, I am just keeping an open - but skeptical - mind. Further, there is no announced complete resolution to what is occurring in the middle east.
With regard to the degree of the waves, the question is whether this is a minute degree wave, minute ⓘ, or whether the whole wave constitutes the alternate Minor C which is shown in red. The only way to tell would be if certain levels were exceeded, including the start of the entire wave on 31 March 2026.
Have an excellent start of the day,
TraderJoe
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, both the SPY and ES have lower lows. Futures down near lower Bollinger Band again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HV2W6tyN/
TJ
Hi TJ, very interesting week ahead.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of a possible expanding (prob ending) diagonal in semis?
If so, blue or black?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/T0bJCObW/
Given where price is relative to the indicator at the bottom, and where price is relative to a channel, and that some of the chart - the more significant low - is cut off, my inclination is to say, 'neither'. There is also 'what looks like' a flat in your wave three of an expanding diagonal. That breaks the 'rules' for an expanding diagonal. But - on closer inspection - that interior wave sequence with its higher high - can be part of a prior contracting diagonal like so.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zAFftSzm/
One should always endeavor to make wave counts that agree with the technical indicators, as per The Eight-Fold-Path-Method.
The alternate for this count is (A), (B), (C); and possibly part of the larger monthly diagonal pattern - or a driver for it.
TJ
Thanks Tj.
Delete(From CNBC) - Fed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YdbXjxMQ/
SPY (cash) 30-min at least qualifies for a diagonal, pending whether the lengths hold.
Fed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992
Cash should hold within equality if it's a contracting diagonal.
TJ
10 yr up. I don't understand how they mange this.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/april-fed-meeting-statement-redline.html
Mag-7 result after bell
@manu .. you are thinking about the wrong things. TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: prior up gap closed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6TVaD7hn/
TJ
..now longer than wave ii, upward. Diagonal appears over. Watch the prior ATH and today's low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1POgUEiT/
TJ
ES 30-min: higher high than today in the after-hours due to Mag-7 beats. TJ
ReplyDelete..now ES futures trade to a new low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fNCj64Y6/
TJ
Lol! Thatsa one spicy candle!
DeleteA whole day+ trades in half-an-hour. And then some. And, of course, it's in the after-hours. TJ.
DeleteNow again +, someone pumping liquidity so high. Oil $109 and Brent $122.00. No way inflation can be managed. 20 yr up. Interest on debt up. I think a b c alternate count will be on soon.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ