There is nothing yet proven in the wave count. Today, the SPY cash index made a slight new daily lower low while the ES did not (yet). So, the main count is shown below on the SPY daily chart.
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| SPY Cash - Daily - Potential Diagonal |
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| SPY Cash - Daily - Alternate |
Diagonals (or potential diagonals, better said) are always tricky. We will note, though, that the MACD is diverging and that is one sign to pay attention to. We want to give the potential diagonal all the time it wants, but we have certain limits. If the wave-counting stop is exceeded lower, that would be a serious wake-up call. The wave-counting stop is the same in both counts. Given the bizarre differences between cash and futures, we think, if today's low holds, then it would best count as a b wave.
There are currently no cash gaps above the market, but there are numerous ones below the market.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Long candlestick tails typically indicate big money flowing into the market and a bullish sign. But...NQ looks to me like nested 1,2s down...VERY bearish...
ReplyDeleteBtw, if the second chart is correct, the inability to muster a typical over-throw of the upper trend-line of the potential ED, long tail notwithstanding, may be telling.
ReplyDeleteES Daily - new lower low day. TJ.
ReplyDelete...and there has now been a lower low than the outside reversal day up within the next two trading sessions, 'possibly' setting a trap for the bulls.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YWiTR3T5/
TJ
Gotta absolutely love these ABSURD cash session inter-index divergences. The hapless market makers must hate them with a vengeance...lol!
ReplyDeleteThank you sharing the daily chart elliott wave analysis!
ReplyDeletewelcome. TJ.
DeleteRatio chart of spy/qqq worth a look.
ReplyDeleteES 4-hr: possible contracting diagonal for a ⓒ wave, near the 100-SMA and lower daily Bollinger Band? This 'might' end an overall 'b' wave, lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/u1TBBUYj/
TJ
Busted?
Deleteb wave low exceeded lower. Market weak. TJ.
DeleteES / SPY (CFD) 1-hr: as far as I can tell, the upward diagonal may have ended with a slight truncation as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a8n5rRQu/
Nothing wrong with that on this massive a wave up. Then, we either have the diagonal down as 1, or working on a parallel. Nothing to the downside will surprise me.
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min - from the intraday wave-counting screen. Price had one failure at the 18-per intraday and the S1 pivot, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JucFNPS7/
It is possible in both cash and futures that if a longer wave up is made, then maybe an expanding diagonal is underway as the waves are very compressed.
TJ
fyi - reminder: AMZN earnings (among others) after the close. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: after three failures at the intraday 18-period, now down though the prior intraday low as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RkEhNh2N/
TJ
AMZN misses - (From CNBC)
ReplyDeleteEarnings per share: $1.95 vs. $1.97 estimated
Revenue: $213.39 billion vs. $211.33 billion estimated
TJ
We are still experiencing an extreme valuation bubble. The plunge protection team will be working hard over the next month or two. Historically, stock crashes tend to occur in the February to April time frame over the past two decades. I made a prediction a few months ago that this period will be particularly challenging for bullish investors. The upper channel line dating back to the 1930s was respected. Now the question will be how long it will take to reach the bottom of the channel line? That would take a 90% correction like we had in 1929-1932.
ReplyDelete"Will be"...?! The "Working Group" is clearly already working...lol!
Deletelol!😂.
ReplyDeleteThere be overhead gaps to fill. Hopefully we get that "unfinished business" finished today so we can really get down to business, possibly a robust 2nd wave up does the trick.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr: this is the potential expanding diagonal count I referred to at the 2:08 PM comment, above.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PcxDEjd0/
TH
New ATH in DJIA means the inter-index divergences obtains. What fun! Savvy traders know exactly what to do with this absurdity. Lol!!
DeleteAnother new high in the Dow. I can't stand it anymore
ReplyDeleteNew York Composite as well
DeleteI can also count the last move down as contracting diagonal in es
ReplyDeleteDitto. Counted as completed yesterday.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x4XGeT05/
ReplyDeleteCould it.be c
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ