Today was an outside day up, and a close over the 18-day SMA. So, the daily bias - at least temporarily - flipped to up, as the ES daily chart below shows. In the process, the prior downward gap in the SPY cash and ES futures was filled.
But the swing line now has a higher high after a lower low, and therefore a new trend is not in force yet. So "outside day up" guidelines are in place in which the low of an outside-day-up should not be taken out in the next two sessions or it constitutes a trap for the bulls. The daily slow stochastic is not embedded. Neither is it over-bought at this time.
IFF a new all-time high is made it would be possible to say that the contracting diagonal higher is still on the table. It would just be extending with the prior high as (i), and Wednesday's low as (ii). But this is yet to be seen.
We remain calm, patient and flexible.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPY (Cash) 1-hr - with the new all-time high, it is possible to see the elongated version of the diagonal, with this high as (iii) or a of (iii). We'll let it stretch out as long as it likes. And, yes, there is one way to see this one as (v), but there is not much evidence of such, yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dtz3MhPV/
TJ
Thanks TJ!
ReplyDeleteRegarding the bigger picture, what´s your thoughts on the exp diagonal?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Lmi7LvA/
Minor B is smaller than intermediate (2) in both price and % as far as I can tell.
Not to get to much out off topic, but it also fits very well with the declining 3,5 yr cycle that turns bullish again 2027/2028, and maybe a "temporary" AI valuation bubble, where capex and ROCE need to reach some kind of reset/equilibrium.
'Possible' on arithmetic scale. But log scale has wave (3) as 'shorter in price' than wave (1), as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fvIX0fib/
But, if the FED freaks out or something, I couldn't put it past the market. So, it remains a viable alternate as I sketched out earlier.
TJ
GOLD (GC futures) 1-hr: GOLD spikes after 'potential triangle'. Caution: bias is still up and daily slow stochastic is still embedded. Sure 'looks like' the thrust from a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WfTduKdm/
TJ
Yep! Should be 5th of a 5th. The long awaited commodity 5th.
DeleteReminder: FOMC decision scheduled for 14:00 ET tomorrow. TJ.
ReplyDeleteNat gas down almost 50 percent in a few hours. I mean, that has to hurt a fund or two I would think?
ReplyDeleteSPY (Cash) 1-hr: on FOMC day. Opening gap closed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eIDtMw29/
TJ
ES/SPY CFD) 30-min: from the "Intraday-wave-counting-screen", price is down to the daily pivot point (PP). It can be counted 'either' as a diagonal or an a-b-c down at this point. It is likely either the 'a' wave of (iii), or (iii) itself ended at the high. Could be into the b wave down of (iii), or (iv), itself as the more likely possibilities.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jKvqJKQL/
TJ
..also note the combination of the 100-period and the lower intraday band here. Not much is bullish until above the 18-period again. TJ.
Deletefyi only - FOMC leaves rates unchanged, and sites better economic growth. Here is the statement (from CNBC).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/january-fed-meeting-what-changed-in-new-statement-redline.html
Reminder: presser scheduled for 14:30 ET, the bottom of the hour.
TJ
Reminder: MSFT, TSLA, META, IBM earnings (among many more) after the close. TJ,
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: outside reversal candle up as META, MSFT, TSLA all beat on top & bottom lines. So far, due to lack of downward overlap there is a way this can still be a fourth wave micro-➃ within 'a', yet. This five-wave-structure, if it completes properly, with a new higher high would be on the ES 4-hr chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IKRqMNuO/
TJ
Here is the Fed wizard index again on Fed Day.
ReplyDeletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TSH7
I still think the lug nuts are getting loose but the wheels will come off when the bond market makes new lows in price.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ