Local Technicals

Today's ES daily candle did the following: 1) it created a 'futures' gap up on the tariff non-news (or the 'manufactured' news), 2) ran up near the upper daily Bollinger Band, 3) closed near the high of the day, and 4) closed on breadth of only about 3.2 -to -1 which is pretty low for the number of points the market rose, and 5) maintained the close over the 18-day SMA with a bullish embedded slow stochastic.

ES Futures - Daily - Gap Up

Today popped slightly outside of the wedge, ran into the 100-day SMA and ran into the 200-day SMA all at the same time. So, there is likely some resistance in this area. Note, this is the second unfilled 'futures' gap up on the chart, which is a little rarer than for the cash gaps.

From a Fibonacci perspective the wave up since 18 Apr is now 100%+ the wave from the 7th to the 9th of last month, too.

And as regards EW there are several levels that could be placed such as (w), (x), (y) or (a), (b), (c) but they depend on whether or not a truncation is seen at the low or not. Suffice to say this could be a 'B' wave up or a '2' wave up with such an ugly count.

It will be interesting to see the put-call ratios when they come out later tonight. The CNN Fear & Greed model is back in the Greed category. Still, the bias and the trend are up until a reversal can be noted. Maybe that will come on a turn-around Tuesday - after a large up Monday. Maybe not.

I'm not getting into this whole tariff thing. It smells to me like it is nothing but announcements for what amounts to insider trading activities, and I don't want to give any energy at all to that kind of activity.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe