Thursday, April 17, 2025

Lower Highs, but ...

With today's close in the cash market, the last four bars of the daily ES futures have a pattern of lower highs. But, as yet, there has not been a significant lower low.


So, there can be a number of patterns at play including a couple of triangles. Still, price is currently below the 18-day SMA and so has a negative bias. The daily slow stochastic has worked off an over-sold condition and is neutral at the midline.

A lower low than yesterday would likely have the effect of making a lower high and a lower low below the 18-day SMA, but that hasn't happened yet. So, we just remain flexible and are counting on smaller time frames.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

7 comments:

  1. Looks pretty obvious that at some point were going to rally to that 5900 cluster of moving averages. Over the 18ma and we're good to go

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  2. I don't know how many noticed the present correction to date has almost been identical to previous correction size wise. https://www.tradingview.com/x/iEU20mjF/

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  3. Near term, NDX and SPX divergence with DJIA in taking out 4/16 lows unlikely to persist imo....

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  4. GC gold: I'd first be inclined to label the wave in this first picture given best fitting parallel (at the moment) and market sentiment, but I couldn't figure out red 3:

    https://i.postimg.cc/V6j4Pqdn/Screenshot-20250419-135556.png

    Furthemore, EWO on the weekly indicates that perhaps the red wave is not over. So, now, I have yellow wave an extended fifth. Purple is expanding diagonal with throwover five (do those even exist?):

    https://postimg.cc/QBsQdzH5

    Thoughts? And I'm not sure what extended waves are -supposed- to look like on EWO. Do you have examples?

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    1. The clearest example of an extended fifth wave I know of is this weekly on the Dow. Wave 3 is just larger than 1. Wave 5 is just larger than 3. (You can adjust to 2 wkly to get 160 candles).

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/4N4eda4v/

      I expect commodities to be different. And in an ending expanding diagonal wave 5 can be 1.618 x 3 or more.

      TJ

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    2. That one is going in my trading file!!!!

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  5. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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