With due apologies to Macca, today we made a fifth wave down that pierced the lower daily Bollinger Band - and ran it a bit - but did not fill the futures gap as per the daily ES futures chart, below. While the futures are still trading as this is written, if the close remains near here, then there is an outside day down.
I had cautioned in the comments to be cognizant of that lower daily band as the Smart Money often like to take profits there. And there was a significant rebound back inside the band to near the open of the bar. So, with five-waves-down, according to the Principle of Equivalence, all we can claim is that there is an a/i at the low of the day.
Today's rebound is very short in time compared to the length of the down wave, so there is a way it can persist for a while. Further, the down wave has downwardly overlapped some additional up waves. It is possible price can go sideways inside the band for a while as the daily slow stochastic is now in over-sold territory.
Today being a weak outside-day-down be careful of the high of today's bar (ES 7,491) for the next two trading sessions as if it exceeded, it might set a trap for the bears.
Make no mistake, this down wave now measures too large to be a simple correction to the up wave. Probably there will be at least one more down wave to follow it, maybe more.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj,
ReplyDeleteYou are such a perfectionist, it was really hard to find the May 4 gap :)
Also if 7491 is exceeded in next few days then is there still a chance to exceed ATH( in news of MOU and SpaceX IPO) ?
Yes, there is one non-overlapping upward count left from what I can see; the five waves down we just had would end a fourth wave. But it does have lower odds until/unless the 18-day SMA is closed above. TJ.
DeleteSPY (Cash) new low of morning. TJ.
ReplyDeletechart link ...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QlHyHcP0/
TJ
Seems like morning high was expanded flat
ReplyDeleteThat's the look in 'cash', but if you include the futures, it has a bit more of a look of three-waves-up. So just keep an open mind and 'don't lock in' until there is something more clear - higher highs or lower lows.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TgvbAn7h/
TJ
In a bear trend, every upward move is a "3" until it's not.
ReplyDeleteES futures now have a lower low than the overnight low. TJ
ReplyDeletefyi - amazing stuff: the ES are down 90 points and the NYSE adv / dec line almost even at 1,333 / 1,419. Right on. TJ.
ReplyDeleteUn-equal weighting.
DeleteSeems like we are in wave C of A from the interim/cycle top in Gold.
ReplyDeleteOr still in diagonal A, down, as below. I'm not assuming - just providing an alternate if new lows are made. Also, not trading it until it becomes clearer.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/isDw1Fa7/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) downward wave now measures 78% or slightly greater.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/N0MrPdbI/
TJ
ES futures hit 90% + in the after-hours. "B" wave of Flat; "X" wave of double-combo or next impulse lower. Watch the low. TJ
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ