Today was a lower low (LL) day for the ES futures, with a middlin' close (MC) as in the daily ES chart below. While the futures are still trading as this is written, we don't expect too much change before the end of their session.
Some interesting elements were 1) there was a lower low overnight in the futures which keeps the swing-line currently headed lower below the 18-day SMA, 2) there appeared to be at least initial rejection at the 18-day as price settled lower, 3) price did not reach either the lower daily Bollinger Band or the prior May 19th low which is still intact: it could, 4) the daily slow stochastic did not yet enter into over-sold territory, and 5) I showed one futures gap earlier from May 22nd that closed. I'm showing above another such close-to-open gap from May 4th which might be the next to close.
All-in-all today still feels like the fourth wave of a downward impulse until/unless that should change. But with price having two closes below the 18-day SMA for the first time in a while, the daily bias has flipped to lower for the present.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Many thanks for your level-headed and clarifying commentary, TraderJoe! 😀
ReplyDeleteAs one of many who spent today's choppy trading session struggling; and, then finally succeeding in establishing a profitable position, the confirmation provided by your analysis "feels like the fourth wave of a downward impulse" helps with a good night's sleep. 👍
Yes. You can hear the robots scream when they have to give away even a nickel! TJ
Delete😄
Delete18 day sma crossed both in es and nq.
ReplyDeleteSPY (cash) 15-min - this could be a sharp wave to alternate with the flat at the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fDwoeunk/
One more slightly higher high would be ok, if the up wave isn't finished yet.
TJ
p.s. there are 124 candles on this time frame, as recommended. TJ.
DeleteInteresting extreme in this chart. It will take a while to revert to the mean.
ReplyDeletehttps://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2064148471385342390/photo/1
👍
DeleteSPY (cash) opening gap filled (GF1), and another below the market.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hfJimXCS/
TJ
...second gap now filled (GF2)
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9BjqK1H6/
TJ
SPY has a new low, not ES futures yet. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) & futures have a new lower daily low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MwVOQ4qW/
An impulse down has been registered. Can go further if it wants but keep an eye out for that lower daily Bollinger Band.
TJ
Does anyone other than me think that this latest bearish wave in the S&P 500 Index (from today's 7483.15 high) look more like a 3rd Wave kickoff than a 5th Wave signature?
ReplyDeleteI was thinking the same like 3rd of 3rd
DeleteThe 5th wave may still extend
DeleteYes it turned out to be 5th not 3rd
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ